trendingtopic

Starting January 16, the top three creators each week who post the best trending topic content on Binance Square will be rewarded with exclusive swag! Standout article submissions will also be spotlighted on our ‘Trending Articles’ page!
Here are Today's Trending Topics for March 12:

This post will be updated daily from Mon-Fri at 07:00 UTC with the latest trending topics and content guidelines to help spark your creative ideas.
Activity Period: Every Tuesday from 07:00 (UTC) to 07:00 (UTC) the following Tuesday, until March 12 2024 at 23:59 (UTC).
How to Participate
Login to your Binance account, and go to Binance Square.Publish content pieces (i.e, posts/articles) that include the #TrendingTopic hashtag and at least 200 characters. 
Rules:
Multiple submissions are allowed, but each eligible creator is only entitled to 1 reward per week.Content pieces must reflect originality, insightful sharings, and real-time narratives.Creators are required to make a total of three posts weekly: one for the #TrendingTopic and two additional posts on any other days of the week.

Terms and Conditions:
This campaign may not be available in your region.Submissions will be evaluated by a panel from the Binance Square team, based on topic relevance, formatting, research quality, factual sourcing, and originality. Content must also align with Campaign Rules.Winners will be announced via the Binance Square Official Account before next Friday.Winners of the week will be notified via Square Assistant push before next Friday.Winners will receive a random Binance merchandise as part of their rewards. Only Articles will be featured on our Trending Articles page.Entries by Media & Project partners will not be considered for this campaign.Binance reserves the right at any time in its sole and absolute discretion to determine and/or amend or vary these terms and conditions without prior notice, including but not limited to canceling, extending, terminating or suspending this campaign, the eligibility terms and criteria, the selection and number of winners, and the timing of any act to be done, and all participants shall be bound by these amendments.Binance reserves the right to disqualify any account acting against the Binance Square Community Guidelines or Terms and Conditions.

If you’ve spent any time in crypto, you’ve probably heard mixed opinions about P2P trading. Some people swear by it. Others call it a scam waiting to happen. The truth, as usual, sits somewhere in the middle.
P2P trading on Binance is not a scam by default. But it can become risky if you don’t understand how it works or ignore basic rules.
Let’s break it down properly, without hype or fear-mongering.
What P2P Trading Actually Means
P2P (peer-to-peer) trading means you’re buying or selling crypto directly with another user, not with Binance itself. Binance acts as the middle layer by providing the platform, escrow system, and dispute resolution.
You agree on a price, choose a payment method (bank transfer, mobile money, etc.), and complete the trade directly with another person.
This setup is powerful, especially in regions where bank restrictions or fiat onramps are limited. But power always comes with responsibility.
Why People Think P2P Is a Scam
Most P2P horror stories come from users breaking the rules or trusting the wrong signals.
Common mistakes include:
Releasing crypto before confirming paymentAccepting payments from third-party accountsCommunicating outside the Binance chatFalling for fake SMS or edited payment screenshots
When these mistakes happen, people blame the platform. In reality, the system worked, but the user ignored it.
How Binance P2P Keeps Users Safe
Binance P2P has several built-in protections that many users underestimate.
First is escrow. When a trade starts, the seller’s crypto is locked by Binance. The seller cannot run away with it once the order is open.
Second is in-platform chat and dispute support. If something goes wrong and you followed the rules, Binance moderators can review evidence and step in.
Third is merchant history and ratings. You can see how many trades someone has completed, their completion rate, and feedback from other users. This matters more than price.
Used correctly, these features make Binance P2P one of the safer P2P systems in crypto.
Where the Real Risk Comes From
The biggest risk in P2P trading isn’t Binance. It’s human behavior.
Scammers rely on urgency, confusion, and inexperience. They may pressure you to release funds quickly, ask you to cancel orders, or request communication outside the platform. These are red flags.
Another overlooked risk is chargebacks. Some payment methods allow reversals. If you’re selling crypto, choosing irreversible payment methods is critical.
P2P isn’t “set and forget.” It requires attention.
Simple Rules That Keep You Safe
From my experience, following these rules removes most risk:
Never release crypto until payment is fully confirmed in your bankOnly trade with users who have strong history and high completion ratesKeep all communication inside BinanceNever accept third-party paymentsTake screenshots and records for every trade
If a deal feels rushed or weird, walk away. There will always be another order.
So, Safe or Scam?
Binance P2P is a tool. In the right hands, it’s safe, efficient, and often cheaper than traditional onramps. In careless hands, it can turn into an expensive lesson.
Calling P2P a scam oversimplifies the problem. The platform provides protection. The outcome depends on how well you use it.
Crypto rewards self-responsibility. P2P trading is no exception.
Final Thought
If you’re new, start small. Learn the flow. Make mistakes with tiny amounts, not life-changing money. Once you understand the system, P2P can become one of the most useful features Binance offers, especially in regions where access matters most.
Used wisely, it’s not a scam. It’s an opportunity.
#P2P #P2PScamAwareness #P2PScam #crypto #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin’s next big options gravity well sits on Mar. 27 (260327), and the reason is simple: this is where the market has parked a thick stack of conditional bets that will need to be unwound, rolled forward, or paid out as the clock runs down.
The Mar. 27 expiry carries about $8.65B in notional OI and flags $90,000 as max pain, a rough reference point for where, in aggregate, option holders would feel the most pain at settlement.
The broader options complex is enormous, with total BTC options open interest around $31.99B across exchanges, led by Deribit at roughly $25.56B, with the rest split across Binance.

That concentration can shape how price behaves on the way there, particularly when liquidity thins and hedging flows start to matter more than anyone wants to admit.
Options can often sound like some kind of private language of institutional traders, which is convenient right up until they start influencing spot price. Our goal here is to translate a crowded derivatives calendar into something legible: where the bets are concentrated, how that concentration can change behavior in spot markets, and why March 27 stands out.
March 27 and the shape of the bets
On Mar. 27 (260327), data shows more calls than puts, roughly 69.85K calls versus 53.25K puts, with puts carrying far more market value than calls in that moment.

That combination might look strange and even contradictory, until you translate it into everyday incentives.
Calls can be plentiful because they offer defined-risk upside exposure that feels emotionally painless to hold, while puts can be more expensive because downside protection is often bought closer to where it actually hurts, and it tends to get repriced more aggressively when the market is nervous.
The volume data adds a second clue about what was happening at the margin. For the same Mar. 27 expiry, CoinGlass data shows puts around 17.98K versus calls around 10.46K in trading volume, again with puts carrying the heavier market value.

That tells us the flow that day leans more toward paying for protection than chasing upside, even while the outstanding inventory still looks call-heavy on count.
Now place that against spot and the broader pile.
March can feel far away in calendar terms, especially when the market is this volatile, but in options terms, it's close enough to exert gravity once nearer expiries finish shuffling positions forward.
When one date holds several billion in notional, it becomes a focal point for rolling, hedging, and all of the other quiet mechanical work market makers do to stay roughly neutral as customers buy and sell convexity. While this doesn't guarantee a particular price, it does increase the odds of price behaving as if there are invisible grooves in the road, because in a derivatives-heavy market, hedging flows can add friction in some ranges and remove it in others.
That brings us to max pain. It's a bookkeeping-style calculation across strikes, not a law of nature and not a trading signal with a motor attached.
It can be a useful reference in the way a median can be useful, as a single marker that tells you something about the distribution, but it's blunt, and blunt tools are almost never the ones moving price.
What tends to matter more is where positions are crowded by strike, because crowding changes how much hedging needs to happen when spot moves. CoinGlass data shows a put/call ratio around 0.44, one more hint that the distribution is lopsided rather than smooth, and lopsided is the whole point because it's how a date stops being a calendar fact and becomes a market event.
There's a simple, non-trader way to hold all of this without turning it into fortune-telling.
As March approaches, crowded strikes can behave like zones where price movement feels oddly damped, then oddly jumpy, because the hedging response is not steady.
If Bitcoin wanders into a heavily populated region, the market’s automatic risk management can reinforce a range, and if Bitcoin moves hard enough to escape it, those same mechanics can flip into something that amplifies momentum instead of resisting it.
What's gamma doing while everyone argues about max pain
If options talk has a single word that scares off otherwise capable people, it's gamma, which is unfortunate because the idea is straightforward when you keep it tied to consequences rather than algebra.
Options have deltas, meaning their value changes with price, and gamma describes how quickly that sensitivity changes as price moves.
Dealers who sit on the other side of customer trades often hedge to reduce directional risk, and the practical version is that hedging can turn them into automatic buyers on dips and sellers on rallies near crowded strikes. This is one of the clearest explanations for why price can look magnetized to certain regions.
The reason this matters for a large expiry like Mar. 27 is that hedging intensity isn't constant through time.
As expiry approaches, near-the-money options tend to become more sensitive, and that can make hedging adjustments more frequent and more meaningful in size. That's where the idea of pinning comes from, the observation that price can spend suspiciously long periods hovering near certain strikes as hedgers lean against small moves.
It's often just a risk-control habit showing up in the tape, and it becomes easier to notice when open interest is large and concentrated.
CryptoSlate has covered similar episodes as the options market has matured, emphasizing that expiry effects are most visible when positioning is heavy and clustered, also noting that the calm can disappear after settlement as hedging pressure resets and new positions get rebuilt.
More traditional market reporting often treats max pain as a reference point while focusing attention on how expiry, positioning, and volatility interact.
The key is that the mechanism itself isn't mystical. A large options stack creates a second layer of trading activity that reacts to spot moves, and sometimes that reactive layer is large enough to be felt by everyone, including people who never touch derivatives.
Options greeks charts, with their stepped shapes, are a visual reminder that sensitivity changes in regimes rather than smoothly. They suggest exposure is concentrated around specific strike regions, so the hedging response can change character as spot crosses those zones.
That's why a single headline number like max pain is usually less informative than a sense of where open interest is thickest, because the thick zones are where hedging flows are most likely to show up as real buying or selling, regardless of what the settlement meme says.
February reshuffles, June anchors, March decides
Mar. 27 is the main event in your snapshot, but the supporting beats matter because they help explain how the March setup can change before it arrives.
The same max pain view shows a meaningful late-February expiry, Feb. 27 (260227), at about $6.14B notional with max pain around $85,000.
It also shows notable size further out, including a high concentration at late June (Jun 26, 260626), which serves as a reminder that positioning is not only about the next few weeks, it is also about the market’s longer-dated posture.
February matters because it's close enough to force real decisions.
Traders who don't want positions to expire often roll them, and rolling isn't just a calendar action, it's a change in where exposure sits.
If February positions get rolled into March, the March pile grows heavier, and the gravity well can deepen. If February positions are closed or shifted to different strikes, March can look less crowded than it does today, and the options map will change in a way that has nothing to do with headlines and everything to do with inventory management.
Either way, February is a likely moment for hedges to be adjusted and for the strike distribution to be reshaped, which is why it deserves attention even in a March-focused story.
June matters for a different reason. Far-dated size tends to decay more slowly and can function like an anchor for risk limits, which can affect how aggressively desks manage near-dated risk in March.
The presence of meaningful longer-dated positioning suggests the market is warehousing views about where Bitcoin could be by early summer. That kind of positioning doesn't dictate day-to-day price, but it can influence the tone of the market around March, including how quickly hedges are rolled forward and how much risk dealers are willing to wear.
So the practical takeaway is that the headline numbers aren't the story on their own.
The $8.65B notional on Mar. 27 and the $90,000 max pain marker tell you there's a crowded event on the calendar, but the mechanism worth watching is where the crowd is standing by strike and how hedging pressure behaves as time shrinks.
The path to March runs through February, when positions can be reshuffled, and it stretches toward June, where longer-dated size can shape how the market carries risk.
None of this replaces macro, flows, or fundamentals, and it doesn't need to. It's a layer of explanation for why Bitcoin can look oddly well-behaved.
When the options stack is this large, you can often see the outlines of the next pressure point in advance, as long as you treat max pain as a rough signpost and focus instead on the crowding that can make price feel sticky in one moment and surprisingly slippery in the next.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
$BTC

I’ve talked quite a lot about the illusions in crypto. I’ve made fun of the arrival of altcoin season, and even about 3 weeks ago I wrote an article saying that if I want, I can see any chart bullish, even if I flip it upside down 🙂

It’s Sunday, I’m scrolling aimlessly on the internet and I keep seeing the same thing again, something that repeats like the voice of an alcoholic saying he’ll quit drinking again starting Monday.

Altcoin season is coming again.
These prices will never be found again.
BTC has hit the bottom again — a bottom that was also at 100k where it was the opportunity of a lifetime, at 90k it was an unbelievable bargain.

Again.
Again, and...
Again...

The idea is simple: I also had a 75k target, it went to 60k… I didn’t know. The one who said 60k didn’t know either. And nobody knows if it goes to 50, to 30, or to 250k by the end of the year.

That’s basically the idea.

No grand conclusions.
Just reality.

A Simple Advice

If I were to give one clear and simple piece of advice:
- Stop dreaming, start trading.
- Start learning technical analysis
- Start using money management

Not because TA predicts the future like a crystal ball, but because it gives structure.
Not because money management is exciting, but because it keeps you alive.

A Funny Story From Last Night (But Also Not Funny)

Funny story from last night — and I swear it’s real.

Last night I was out with a friend in the Old Town in Bucharest. We were celebrating… well, celebrating his sports betting ticket that hit with odds of 486. In crypto language: a 486x.

He does this every weekend — places a few tickets, about 100 RON each (around 20 EUR). Most lose, one hits once in a while, this one hit BIG.🙂

What’s truly funny is the contrast.

The same friend bought a crypto coin at the top in 2021. Since then, he’s been DCA-ing into what is objectively a garbage coin. Yesterday I even asked him about it and he told me he’s about 60k in the hole.

60k...for a guy that is not rich at all...

The irony writes itself.

Investing vs. Calling It Investing

The reality is he believes he’s an investor.

But he doesn’t know how to draw a trendline.
I’m more than convinced the first time he ever looked at his coin’s chart was when I tried to analyze it for him about two years ago.

He bought because of an influencer’s story.
Now he keeps DCA-ing endlessly, with the desperate hope that one day he’ll recover.

That’s not investing.
That’s anchoring to a mistake.

And psychologically, it’s not that different from betting slips — just slower and dressed in nicer words.

The Lesson Hidden in Plain Sight

There’s actually a lesson in the contrast:

With sports betting, he knows it’s gambling.
With crypto, he believes it’s investing.

But behavior matters more than labels.

If decisions are based on:
- influencers
- hope
- blind DCA
- refusal to reassess

Then the difference between gambling and investing/trading becomes very thin, if any.

The Market Owes Nobody a Recovery

Markets don’t care where you bought.
They don’t owe you a comeback.
They don’t reward loyalty.

Sometimes a bad asset stays bad forever.
Sometimes a narrative never returns.
Sometimes the “cycle comeback” is just a story people tell to cope.

Harsh? Maybe.
But expensive lessons are usually the honest ones.

The Real Shift

At some point, every trader faces a choice:

Treat the market like a place for dreams
or
Treat it like a place for decisions.

Dreams feel better.
Decisions work better.

Final Thought

You don’t need to predict bottoms.
You don’t need 100x stories.
You don’t need altcoin seasons to save you.

You need structure.
You need risk control.
You need honesty with yourself.

Stop dreaming.
Start trading.

Have a nice Sunday!
#Write2Earn #TrendingTopic #BinanceSquare
$BTC $GIGGLE $ASTER

Bitcoin just ended a major correction, a classic ABC. It was 53.56% strong (-53.56% from top to bottom).

The last weekly session produced the highest volume on the sell side since March 2024. The last bullish move started August 2024. This volume signal reveals that lower prices are likely in the latter part of 2026. It also reveals that any bullish action that starts now should be short-lived, short-term, and should end in a lower high.

The correction bottom reached $60,000 on a wick. Multiple support levels were pierced. The weekly session close happened at $70,330.

$BTC closed below the 0.5 Fib. retracement level in relation to the long-term market cycle, which sits at $70,839, but above the 0.618 level ($57,772). The fact that the 0.618 Fib. retracement level missed completely calls for some sort of relief rally, short-term bullish action.

This opens up two targets mainly right away, without going through too many calculus: 1) The previous high around $98,000 and 2) the 0.382 Fib. retracement level in relation to the current correction, which sits at $85,288. The latter is an easy, high probability target. This is the minimum price Bitcoin will challenge in the coming weeks.

We can speculate about other developments; the wave's size, shape and duration, but this is all irrelevant at this point. The most basic fact that can be extracted from this chart is that Bitcoin is going up as a market reaction to the strong down-move, an inverted correction.

This up-wave is bound to happen regardless of past cycles, ETFs, the news, astrology, moon landing, etc. The chart calls for a relief rally and this is what we will get. The rest is just hocus pocus and much speculative opining.

The most important development on this chart is the most recent move. Its duration was 119 days based on the weekly candles. The inverted correction's duration will happen in relation to this move because the market is reacting to it. The market is reacting to the fact that Bitcoin hit $60,000. To the fact that it pierced several strong long-term support levels but failed to close below them. The market will exploit this and push prices higher.

The inverted correction can last a maximum of 60 days, which is around half the time the duration of the main move.

39% of 119 days gives us 46 days. We are starting to form a picture as to the duration of the relief rally and I think this is enough for today.

While the inverted correction takes place on Bitcoin, the altcoins market will blow up.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

Lợi nhuận không còn bù nổi rủi ro
Một tín hiệu đáng chú ý vừa xuất hiện trên thị trường crypto.
Theo dữ liệu mới nhất từ CryptoQuant, chỉ số Sharpe Ratio của Bitcoin – thước đo hiệu suất lợi nhuận sau khi đã điều chỉnh theo rủi ro – đang lao dốc xuống vùng cực thấp, khu vực từng nhiều lần trùng khớp với giai đoạn cuối của các chu kỳ thị trường gấu trong quá khứ.
Điều này cho thấy một thực tế khá khắc nghiệt:

Nhà đầu tư đang gánh rủi ro lớn hơn rất nhiều so với phần thưởng nhận được.
Nói đơn giản, Bitcoin vẫn biến động mạnh, nhưng lợi nhuận lại suy yếu. Tỷ lệ “được – mất” đang nghiêng hẳn về phía bất lợi.
Khi biến động cao nhưng hiệu suất kém

Sharpe Ratio càng thấp, hiệu quả đầu tư càng giảm.
Ở thời điểm hiện tại, chỉ số này tiếp tục xấu đi, phản ánh rằng:
Biến động giá vẫn lớn
Lợi nhuận không đủ bù rủi ro
Tài sản trở nên kém hấp dẫn nếu xét theo risk-adjusted return
Lịch sử thị trường cho thấy, những giai đoạn Sharpe Ratio bị “nén sâu” như vậy thường đi kèm:
Áp lực bán kéo dài
Tâm lý nhà đầu tư mệt mỏi
Nhiều vị thế bị kẹt hoặc thua lỗ
Đà giảm diễn ra dai dẳng thay vì sụp đổ nhanh
Đây chính là kiểu thị trường khiến dòng tiền đứng ngoài quan sát nhiều hơn là tham gia.
Đừng xem Sharpe Ratio như tín hiệu mua bán

CryptoQuant cũng nhấn mạnh một điểm quan trọng:
👉 Sharpe Ratio không phải chỉ báo timing (bắt đáy – chốt lời).
Thay vào đó, nó phản ánh hành vi và hiệu suất quá khứ của thị trường.
Tuy nhiên, khi chỉ số rơi về mức âm sâu hoặc tiệm cận đáy lịch sử, điều đó thường cho thấy:
Phần lớn nhà đầu tư đang chịu áp lực cực đại
Tâm lý thị trường chạm ngưỡng bi quan
Các vùng này thường xuất hiện gần điểm xoay chiều dài hạn
Nói cách khác, đây không phải thời điểm hồi phục mạnh, mà là giai đoạn tích lũy âm thầm trước khi xu hướng mới hình thành.
Chiến lược hợp lý trong bối cảnh hiện tại

Từ dữ liệu lịch sử, CryptoQuant gợi ý hai cách tiếp cận thận trọng:
1️⃣ Xây dựng vị thế dần dần
DCA khi rủi ro giảm theo thời gian, tránh “all-in” sớm.
2️⃣ Chờ xác nhận xu hướng
Kiên nhẫn đợi Sharpe Ratio cải thiện rõ ràng trước khi tăng tỷ trọng.
Điểm chung là:
không cần vội vàng.
Các chu kỳ trước cho thấy giai đoạn “mệt mỏi” này có thể kéo dài nhiều tháng trước khi thị trường thực sự đảo chiều.
#bitcoin #crypto #TrendingTopic
$BTC $ETH

The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to around 14, a level widely classified as “Extreme Fear.” This reading signals intense risk aversion across markets, even as trading activity continues at a steady pace. Historically, such conditions reveal a sharp disconnect between sentiment and participation, a dynamic that often precedes major market inflection points.
In this article, we break down what an extremely low Fear & Greed Index means, why fear can dominate despite active trading, and how investors typically respond in these environments.
What Is the Fear & Greed Index?
The Fear & Greed Index is a sentiment indicator designed to measure investor emotions in financial markets. It aggregates multiple data points such as:
Market momentumVolatility levelsTrading volumePrice strengthDemand for safe-haven assets
The index ranges from 0 to 100:
0–24: Extreme Fear25–49: Fear50: Neutral51–74: Greed75–100: Extreme Greed
A reading near 14 places the market firmly in panic territory.

Why Is Fear So High Right Now?
An extremely low index reading typically reflects a combination of factors:
1. Heightened Uncertainty
Macroeconomic pressure, unclear policy direction, or global instability can drive investors to reduce risk exposure aggressively.
2. Volatility Spikes
Sharp price swings increase emotional reactions. Even short-lived drops can amplify fear when confidence is already fragile.
3. Recent Market Drawdowns
Losses tend to linger psychologically. After prolonged downside action, investors often expect further declines, regardless of improving fundamentals.
4. Negative News Cycles
Markets often react more strongly to bad news than good. Persistent bearish narratives can overpower neutral or positive data.

Why Trading Activity Remains Strong Despite Fear
A common misconception is that fear equals inactivity. In reality, extreme fear often increases trading volume:
Short-term traders capitalize on volatilityLong-term investors begin gradual accumulationForced liquidations trigger automated selling and rebalancingInstitutions reposition portfolios quietly
This creates an environment where prices fluctuate aggressively, even though sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.
Historical Perspective: What Extreme Fear Has Meant Before
Looking back, periods where the Fear & Greed Index fell below 20 have often coincided with:
Local or macro market bottomsCapitulation phases before stabilizationHigh-risk, high-opportunity zones for long-term investors
While extreme fear does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it frequently signals that much of the selling pressure has already occurred.
How Investors Typically Respond to Extreme Fear
Different market participants react in distinct ways:
Retail investors often reduce exposure or exit positions emotionallyExperienced traders focus on range setups and volatility playsLong-term investors scale into positions gradually rather than all at once
The key distinction is time horizon. Fear-driven environments punish impatience but can reward discipline.

Key Takeaways
A Fear & Greed Index near 14 reflects extreme pessimism, not necessarily market collapseHigh fear can coexist with strong trading volume and liquidityHistorically, extreme fear zones often precede stabilization phasesRisk management and patience matter more than prediction
Final Thoughts
An extremely low Fear & Greed Index is less about predicting exact market bottoms and more about understanding emotional extremes. When fear dominates headlines and sentiment metrics, markets are often closer to exhaustion than euphoria.
For investors, this is a time to stay rational, manage risk carefully, and avoid emotional decision-making. Fear may feel overwhelming, but historically, it has also been the emotion most closely associated with opportunity.
#fear&greed #TrendingTopic #crypto #Binance

Bitcoin đã trải qua đợt sụt giảm mạnh xuống dưới 60.000 USD vào ngày 06/02/2026 trước khi phục hồi lên vùng 70.000 USD nhưng đây không phải khởi đầu của một mùa đông crypto mới mà là đợt dao động mạnh trong xu hướng điều chỉnh với nhiều dấu hiệu cho thấy thị trường đang ở giai đoạn bán tháo đỉnh điểm và tiến gần vùng đáy tiềm năng.

Giá Đóng Cửa BTC (01-09/02)

Điểm nổi bật:
Bitcoin đã giảm sâu khoảng 52,18% so với đỉnh lịch sử 126.000 USD (10/2025) nhưng sau đó phục hồi nhanh hơn 17% từ vùng đáy 60.000 USD chỉ trong vòng 2 ngày.
Diễn biến này tạo thành mô hình V-shape recovery thường xuất hiện trong các đợt capitulation ngắn hạn, khác với đặc điểm của một xu hướng giảm kéo dài.

Nhận Định Từ Các Chuyên Gia & Nhân Vật Nổi Tiếng

1. Matt Hougan (CIO Bitwise) “Mùa đông crypto đã bắt đầu từ đầu 2025 nhưng đang ở giai đoạn cuối”
Nhận định của Hougan cho rằng:
“Chúng ta đã ở trong mùa đông crypto kể từ tháng 01/2025. Khả năng cao là hiện tại chúng ta đang ở gần cuối chu kỳ hơn là ở điểm bắt đầu.”
Điểm đáng chú ý: Ông nhấn mạnh rằng các mùa đông crypto trong lịch sử thường kéo dài khoảng 13 tháng và theo khung thời gian này thị trường có thể đã đi qua giai đoạn khó khăn nhất.

2. Peter Brandt (Nhà giao dịch kỳ cựu) “Vùng hỗ trợ ‘vỏ chuối’ quanh 42.000 USD”
Dựa trên phân tích kỹ thuật và dữ liệu lịch sử, Brandt xác định vùng hỗ trợ mạnh quanh 42.000 USD mà ông gọi là “banana peel zone” nơi các chu kỳ trước thường hình thành đáy.
Tuy vậy, ông cũng thừa nhận rằng mức điều chỉnh hiện tại của Bitcoin vẫn nhẹ hơn đáng kể so với các chu kỳ giảm sâu trong quá khứ.

3. Mike McGlone (Chiến lược gia Bloomberg) “Cảnh báo kịch bản xấu nhất về vùng 10.000 USD”
McGlone đưa ra quan điểm thận trọng nhất, khi cảnh báo Bitcoin có thể giảm sâu về vùng 10.000 USD trong kịch bản cực đoan, nếu thị trường toàn cầu rơi vào khủng hoảng thanh khoản tương tự các giai đoạn 2000–2001 hoặc 2008.

So sánh với các mùa đông crypto trong lịch sử
Dựa trên dữ liệu các chu kỳ trước:
• 2011: Giảm ~93%
• 2015: Giảm ~86%
• 2018: Giảm ~84%
• 2022: Giảm ~77%
• 02/2026: Giảm khoảng 44–52%
Mức giảm hiện tại thấp hơn đáng kể so với tất cả các mùa đông crypto trước đây, vốn thường ghi nhận mức sụt giảm trên 77%. Điều này ủng hộ giả thuyết rằng thị trường đang trải qua một đợt điều chỉnh mạnh, thay vì bước vào một chu kỳ suy thoái kéo dài mới.

Tổng hợp rủi ro cần theo dõi
• Kịch bản tiêu cực từ McGlone với vùng giá 10.000 USD trong trường hợp khủng hoảng thanh khoản nghiêm trọng
• Vùng hỗ trợ 42.000 USD theo phân tích của Brandt, đặc biệt nếu BTC đánh mất mốc 55.000 USD
• Áp lực bán từ miner và dòng vốn rút khỏi ETF, vẫn là yếu tố cần quan sát

Quan điểm cá nhân
Theo đánh giá của mình thì đợt giảm về vùng 60.000 USD của Bitcoin mang tính chất dao động mạnh và capitulation ngắn hạn hơn là dấu hiệu khởi đầu của một mùa đông crypto mới.
Nhà đầu tư dài hạn nên theo dõi sát các vùng hỗ trợ quan trọng, bao gồm 55.000 USD (Realized Price) và 42.000 USD (theo phân tích của Brandt).
Ở thời điểm hiện tại xu hướng chủ đạo vẫn nghiêng về kịch bản thị trường đã đi qua giai đoạn khó khăn nhất của đợt điều chỉnh này dù rủi ro vĩ mô vẫn chưa thể loại bỏ hoàn toàn.
Tất cả nội dung trên chỉ nhằm mục đích cung cấp thông tin. Không phải là lời khuyên đầu tư. Người đọc nên tự tìm hiểu kỹ trước khi đưa ra quyết định.
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