#NFP 📉 US Treasury yields fall ahead of NFP: what to expect from the markets?
Today, February 10, 2026, financial markets are in the calm before the storm. US Treasury yields are falling, with the last investors pricing in future Fed policy easing.
🔍 What's on the market?
The US labor market has become the main "pendulum" for monetary policy. Weak retail sales data and signals of slowing growth are forcing investors to buy bonds with their yields down.
• 2-year bonds: The most sensitive to Fed rates, they are leading the decline.
• 10-year bonds: Falling more due to the risk premium factor and the volume of new issues.
• Expectations: Truist Wealth sees first rate cut as early as spring 2026 if hiring remains at 5-year lows.
📊 Post-NFP scenarios:
1. 🔥 Strong data (more jobs):
Market pushes back rate cut expectations. 2-year yield rises sharply, dollar strengthens, stocks could come under pressure.
2. ⚖️ Within expectations:
Market to continue to drift in current range. Focus shifts to wage growth and review of past months.
3. 🧊 Weak data (fewer jobs):
Fed gets green light. Bond yields fall, dollar weakens. Stocks may initially rise on cheap money joys, but recession fears may emerge later.