macrostrategy

Because a US government shutdown is suddenly a real possibility — and no, this isn’t just noise anymore
📉 Quick Flashback:
• Last shutdown → Gold & Silver ripped to record highs
• Shortly after → sharp reversal and heavy downside
Here’s what many overlook: if you’re exposed to stocks, crypto, bonds, or even holding USD, this matters more than you think.
⚠️ Risk of a DATA BLACKOUT
If the government shuts down, key economic data can go dark. No data means no visibility — and markets hate flying blind.
🔍 Four Critical Risks to Monitor:
1️⃣ Collateral Stress 🧨
• Credit warnings are flashing
• Downgrade risks increase
• Capital rotates toward defensive assets
2️⃣ Economic Data Goes Silent 🕳️
• No CPI, jobs reports, balance sheets, or rate guidance
• The Fed loses real-time insight
• Risk models turn into educated guesses
3️⃣ Recession Pressure Builds 📉
• Shutdowns can reduce GDP by ~0.2% per week
• Markets are already fragile
• Could accelerate a broader economic slowdown
4️⃣ Liquidity Tightens 🧊
• RRP buffer nearly depleted
• Backstops are thinning
• Dealers conserve cash → funding stress rises
💰 How Big Money Reacts
In a shutdown scenario, liquidity becomes priority one. Expect capital to move fast and risk exposure to shrink.
📊 Estimated Probability: ~70%
Uncomfortable? Absolutely. Unmanageable? Not if you prepare.
Stay alert — strategy updates coming. The goal is to stay protected, not emotional.
#MarketRisk #USShutdown #MacroAlert #LiquidityWatch #CryptoAndStocks #GoldSilver #MacroStrategy

Oubliez le simple rebond. Ce qu’on observe sur l’Or et l’Argent, c’est une récupération parabolique. En l’espace de 48 heures, les métaux précieux ont rappelé au marché ce que signifie réellement le terme "valeur refuge".
📊 Les chiffres du séisme
🥇 L'Or ($XAU) : Pump massif de +15,62 % depuis les points bas de lundi. Résultat ? 4,74 trillions (billions) de dollars injectés dans sa capitalisation boursière en seulement deux jours. Ce n'est pas du retail, c'est l'entrée massive des fonds souverains.🥈 L'Argent ($XAG) : Fidèle à sa réputation de "Hedge sous stéroïdes", il explose de +26 %. Près de 1 trillion de dollars de valeur restaurée en un clin d'œil.
Total : 6 000 milliards de dollars ont roté vers les actifs tangibles en 48h.
🧠 Pourquoi c'est un tournant (The Alpha)
Ce n'est pas un simple "buy the dip" de particuliers. C'est un repositionnement macroéconomique global. Quand les capitaux migrent aussi vite vers le physique, le message est clair :
Repricing du risque : Le marché recalcule l'exposition au danger.Crise de confiance : Les piliers financiers traditionnels montrent des fissures.Flight to Safety : La protection devient plus importante que le rendement immédiat.
Ce genre de mouvement vertical ne se produit jamais par temps calme. C'est le signal que les "Main Players" (institutionnels et États) privilégient désormais la sécurité maximale.
Le mot de la fin : En période d'incertitude totale, les actifs réels ne demandent pas la permission de décoller. Ils reprennent leur place. 🧱🔥
#GoldSilverRebound #MacroStrategy #SafeHaven #XAU #XAG

The probability of what is happening is near zero.
Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week.
– Bonds
– Silver
– Gold
We are currently living through a statistical impossibility.
Let me explain:
Last Tuesday, Japanese 30-year debt recorded what’s called a “6-sigma” session.
2 days ago, silver did even better: it was at 5-sigma on the rally, then reached 6-sigma on the drop. IN A SINGLE SESSION.
Gold right now? It’s up 23% in less than a month. We’re getting very close to a 6-sigma event.
That’s three 6-sigma events in ONE WEEK.
To explain quickly: in finance, we measure price moves around an average using the standard deviation, which we call sigma.
1-sigma: mundane
2-sigma: common
3-sigma: becomes rare
4-sigma: exceptional
5-sigma: extremely rare
6-sigma: supposed to occur once in 500 million
Here are the 6-sigma-type episodes we saw previously:
– The october 1987 crash, 22% drop in 1 session
– March 2020 covid crash
– The swiss franc’s surge in january 2015
– WTI oil turning negative in april 2020
But we’ve never had 3 events occur in one week.
Do you see the point?
A 6-sigma event is almost NEVER triggered by a simple macro headline.
It almost always comes from the market’s structure: leverage, positions that are too concentrated, margin calls, collateral problems, and forced selling or buying.
That’s important to understand because we’re talking about internal strains in the system’s mechanics.
As you know, the Japanese bond market sits at the heart of the global financial system, and I won’t go back over the whole topic, but a 6-sigma move in a market that enormous doesn’t go unnoticed.
Seeing a 6-sigma move in silver a few days later gives one a lot to think about.
And now gold?? That’s absolutely insane.
Why are we seeing extreme statistical events, only days apart, in such different markets?
When a pillar of global funding becomes unstable, leverage tends to contract, and two things happen at the same time: forced selling in certain assets and forced buying of protection in others.
Historically, precious metals are often among the beneficiaries.
Long-term rates say something about the credibility of states: that is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation.
Precious metals say something about the credibility of the currency itself, and when both become unstable at the same time, we’re looking at a challenge to the monetary framework.
I won’t go on, because I want to share the rest in another tweet tomorrow, but generally when a regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL.
It’s exactly in those moments that several high-sigma events appear across different asset classes.
I’ll repeat it: seeing three 6-sigma events back to back is not normal.
Gold and silver are telling you, explicitly, that we’re living through a real paradigm shift.
Remember, I’ve called every market top and bottom of the last 10 years.
When I make a new move, I’ll share it here publicly for everyone to see, and it’s coming soon.
A lot of people will wish they followed me sooner.
#GOLD #Silver #MacroStrategy #Market_Update #FinanceNews
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