The market is entering a critical "Decision Zone." After the "Ghost Coin" glitch at Bithumb sent Bitcoin into a tailspin to $60,000 last week, the recovery has stalled. As of this morning, Bitcoin (
$BTC ) is trading near $69,000, facing stiff resistance as it attempts to turn the $70,000 psychological mark back into support.
1. The Bithumb Regulatory Fallout
The South Korean exchange Bithumb is under intense pressure today as the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) labels its recent $42B ledger error "catastrophic."
The Situation: While 99.7% of the accidental Bitcoin was recovered, approximately 13 billion won ($9M) remains unrecovered after 86 users sold or withdrew the funds during the 35-minute chaos.The Impact: This has reignited the "Structural Risk" debate, causing traders to favor decentralized self-custody or high-liquidity Tier-1 exchanges like Binance.
2. The "Warsh" & Fed Balance Sheet Watch
Traders are nervously awaiting the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet data releasing this Thursday.
The Sentiment: The "Warsh Pivot" (nomination of Kevin Warsh) has traders pricing in a "Hawkish" environment.The Flow: While Friday saw over $350M in ETF inflows, Ethereum ($ETH) is lagging, briefly dropping below $2,000 today as capital flows preferentially into the "Sovereign Reserve" of Bitcoin.
3. Trending: The #HYPE Challenge
A major trending topic on the Square today is the Arthur Hayes vs. Kyle Samani bet.
The Bet: Hayes is betting that Hyperliquid ($HYPE) will outperform every "top 100 shitcoin" between now and July. $HYPE has become the 2026 outlier, holding its value while others bleed, as it captures the "Perp DEX" narrative.
🔮 Prediction: The "Mid-Week Squeeze"
Bitcoin is currently trapped in a "Falling Wedge" on the 15-minute timeframe.
Bullish Case: A reclaim of the $71,500 level would trigger a massive short-squeeze toward $73,800, completing a five-wave impulsive pattern.Bearish Case: If the US advisories on Iran tensions escalate, we may see a final "liquidity sweep" back to $64,000.
💡 Smart Strategy: This is a "Contrarian" market. When the Fear & Greed Index hits 9, the "Smart Money" is usually shopping. Focus on RWA (Real World Assets) and Perp DEXs ($HYPE), which are decoupled from the broader macro fear. The "leverage flush" is nearly complete—don't let the noise shake your spot positions.
Are you betting on the "Hayes #HYPE" or HODLing the Bitcoin dip? Let’s talk below! 👇
#Bithumb #hype #ExtremeFear #writetoearn #crypto