datacentercooling

Friday I thought the AI capex trade was dead. $VRT -3.5% to 300.53, $ANET -4% to 159.99, $CSCO -3.7% to 112.69 - the datacenter trio bled 3-4% into a 4-day weekend. Looked like a thesis break. Was ready to fade the rip on Tuesday.

Then Monday's post-holiday session lit the bid back up. The leader ripped from 309 to 329 intraday before closing 321.62 (+7% off the Friday low). Arista caught a 7.8% bid off 159 to 172.58. Even Cisco crawled back 1.6% to 114.43. Light holiday tape - VRT volume only 814K vs the 6M norm - but the bid was real.

My read: Friday's sell wasn't thesis, it was end-of-quarter positioning flushing weak hands. Whoever sold at 296 Friday didn't want to be the one chasing back through 329 Monday. Classic W-shaped bottom.

Saw this morning, the macro caught a tailwind while nobody was watching. The buck softened to 100.98, US10Y eased to 4.48%. Risk-on prints across the tape - BTC ripped +1.6% to 63.7K over the long weekend. Fear gauge still pinned at 24 though, extreme fear even with the relief bounce.

Watching 329 now on the leader. If we clear that on real volume (3M+), I'm adding to the long bias. If we lose 309, the holiday rip was a dead cat bounce and I'm out. R/R looks better at 320 than it did at 296.

Edge in liquid-to-chip cooling and 800G switching optics hasn't changed. Whoever owns the supply line still owns the AI buildout. Few will remember Friday's flush a month from now. Wagmi if you held through. NFA, DYOR.

#AIDatacenter #DatacenterCooling #Stocks