While most altcoins are striving to maintain their bullish momentum, Toncoin continues its downward spiral. Since the arrest of Telegram's CEO, the price decline of TON seems relentless.
Over the past week, Toncoin has lost 22.7% of its value, breaking below the critical $4 support level. Currently, it is trading at $3.78, reflecting a 2.71% decline in the last 24 hours.
Continued Downtrend: Will Toncoin Fall Below $3.50?
With increasing market uncertainty, investors are questioning whether Toncoin will extend its losses below $3.50 or stage a recovery.
Weekly Chart Analysis: Toncoin Loses Key Support Levels
Looking at the weekly chart, Toncoin has broken out of a bullish flag pattern. Last week alone, it dropped 17.64%, losing its trendline support and falling below the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA).
The downtrend deepened as Toncoin hit a seven-day low of $2.99, indicating extreme selling pressure. However, after this dip, Toncoin managed to rebound to $3.78.
Despite this short-term recovery, technical indicators remain bearish. The MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover, while the negative histogram bars continue to increase, confirming strong bearish dominance in the market.
Short-Term Outlook: Signs of Recovery in the 4-Hour Chart?
On the 4-hour chart, Toncoin appears to be stabilizing above the $3.70 level and forming a descending triangle pattern. This pattern suggests a possible breakout opportunity.
Moreover, the 4-hour MACD and signal lines are trending positively, hinting at a short-term attempt at recovery. If Toncoin successfully breaks above the 20-week EMA and the upper trendline, it could trigger a rally towards $4.
On the other hand, if the descending triangle pattern breaks downward, Toncoin could plunge to the psychological support level of $3.
Whale Activity: A Bearish Signal for Toncoin?
As the bearish sentiment around Toncoin intensifies, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has raised another red flag. In a recent post on X, Ali highlighted that over 1.43 million Toncoins have been moved out of whale wallets in the past week.
This massive outflow suggests declining confidence among large investors, which could accelerate further price declines. If market volatility persists, Toncoin could easily break below critical support levels.
Conclusion: Will Toncoin Drop Below $3.50 or Recover?
If Toncoin fails to reclaim the 20-week EMA, the next major support level sits at $3.00. A continued bearish trend could push prices even lower.
Conversely, if bulls regain control, Toncoin could break above the upper trendline and target a recovery towards $4.
Overall, Toncoin is at a crucial juncture, and the coming days will be key in determining its next direction.
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