bitcoin

Bitcoin ran hard, then reality hit. Losing $70K wasn’t just technical, it changed market behavior. This feels less like panic and more like a reset phase.
Bitcoin didn’t just pull back. It lost a level the market trusted.
For months, Bitcoin felt unstoppable. Every dip was bought, sentiment stayed bullish, and momentum carried price all the way to the October 2025 peak near $126,000. Confidence was high, risk was ignored, and the trend looked easy.
Then the tone quietly changed.
When Bitcoin slipped below $70,000, most traders initially brushed it off as another routine dip. But this time, the bounce never really showed strength. Selling pressure stayed persistent, volatility expanded, and price gradually slid toward the $60,000 zone. In the process, Bitcoin gave back around 50% of its gains from the peak.
That wasn’t panic.
That was the market hitting reset.
Why $70K Was More Than Just a Level
$70,000 wasn’t just technical support. It was psychological. Above it, the market believed the trend was safe. Below it, confidence cracked. Once that level flipped into resistance, behavior shifted quickly. Leverage began to unwind, late longs got trapped, and fear replaced the calm optimism that defined the rally.
This is usually how strong trends pause. Not with a single crash, but with a slow grind that exhausts both buyers and sellers.
What a Reset Phase Really Looks Like
Right now, Bitcoin isn’t trending. It’s resetting.
That typically comes with:
Choppy, unpredictable price actionSharp moves in both directionsFailed breakouts and weak recoveriesEmotional overtrading
These phases feel frustrating, but they’re necessary. Strong rallies don’t continue without clearing excess leverage and weak positioning first.
One thing that stands out is volume behavior. Selling waves have come with stronger volume, while bounces have looked lighter and less convincing. That usually suggests sellers still have short-term control, even if price is trying to stabilize.
The Most Important Level Right Now
The $60,000 area is the key decision zone for the market.
If buyers defend it, Bitcoin can consolidate, cool down volatility, and start building a healthier baseIf it fails decisively, the market may need to explore lower levels before confidence can return
At this stage, prediction matters less than reaction. Strong markets show demand quickly. Weak markets struggle to reclaim lost levels.
What This Phase Teaches Traders
Markets like this reward discipline, not excitement.
Strong rallies always need resetsPsychological levels matter more than indicatorsPatience usually beats prediction during high volatility
Personally, I’m not trying to guess the bottom. I’m watching how price behaves around key levels, how volume reacts, and whether buyers step in with conviction. This is a phase for observation, not aggression.
My Current Mindset
In conditions like these, my focus is simple: capital protection first, opportunity later. This is where many traders either overtrade or completely step away. Both extremes usually lead to mistakes. Slowing down and letting the market reveal its direction is often the smarter move.
The Bigger Picture
Bitcoin isn’t broken. Corrections like this have always been part of its cycles. The rally was fast and emotional. The reset is slow and uncomfortable. That contrast is normal.
In simple terms:
Bitcoin ran hard. Now it’s catching its breath.
The next real opportunity won’t come from hype. It’ll come when volatility cools, fear fades, and price proves it can stand on its own again.
This is just my market perspective, not financial advice.
👉 Do you see this reset as an accumulation phase, or do you think the market still needs more time to cool off?
#bitcoin
#BTC
#CryptoMarket

Look at the weekly $BTC chart.
There’s one constant across every major cycle the 200-week Moving Average (the red line on the chart).
It has repeatedly acted as the dividing line between panic and opportunity.
2020: Bitcoin wicked below the 200W MA during the Covid crash → followed by a historic bull run.2022–2023: Price consolidated around and slightly under it → leading into the expansion toward six figures.Now: Price is once again revisiting that same structural region
What matters isn’t that price is falling.
What matters is where it’s falling.
The 200W MA Is a Cycle Reset Zone
The 200-week MA is not a magical indicator.
It represents:
• The long-term cost basis of the market
• The average entry of multi-year holders
• A historical compression zone where risk gradually declines
Every time Bitcoin has traded significantly below this level, it has occurred during extreme fear not long-term structural weakness.
On the chart, you can see rounded accumulation bases forming around this line in previous cycles.
Above the 200W MA → optimism and expansion.
At or below it → exhaustion and disbelief.
That emotional contrast is the edge.
Why This Beats 95% of Traders
Most traders:
Buy breakouts after large movesUse leverage late in the cycleSell into fearOvertrade volatility
Meanwhile, a much simpler strategy has historically outperformed:
Wait for BTC to trade at or below the 200-week MA.
Accumulate gradually.
Avoid leverage.
Hold through the recovery phase.
No prediction. No constant screen time. No emotional decision-making.
Over a 2–3 year horizon, this discipline alone has outperformed the majority of active participants.
Important: This Isn’t “Calling the Bottom”
Price can overshoot. Volatility can remain elevated.
The market can stay uncomfortable longer than expected.
But historically, when BTC trades around or below the 200W MA, the long-term asymmetry shifts.
Downside becomes increasingly limited relative to upside potential across a full cycle.
That’s not certainty.
That’s probability.
You don’t need to outsmart the market. You don’t need complex indicators. You don’t need perfect timing. You need patience in high-probability zones. And historically, the 200-week moving average has been one of them.
In crypto, intelligence is common. Discipline is rare. And sometimes, simplicity is the real edge.

Bitcoin price could still reach $150,000 by year-end, but several things must happen for BTC price to find its technical footing and spark a new bull run.
$BTC $66,988 may recover from its ongoing slump and reach $150,000 by the year’s end, according to a recent Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.

Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.

In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw $BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.

In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.

The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting $BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.

More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.

Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop

On Nov 18th 2025 I suggested that Btc was headed for a bottom at $84K (+/-2K).

I expressed concerns about a very bearish move if price fell below $81K. On Nov 21st that low $80s target was hit. Only later to be violated to the downside.

On Nov 30th I suggested that $BTC had bottomed at $80K & would bounce up to $98-99K and get rejected. On Jan 14th 2026 my target of $98K was hit with strange accuracy...and rejected as anticipated.

Once BTC was rejected at $98K, I suggested the recent lows at $80K would be swiped. I once again expressed concerns about a very bearish move if price fell below this local low.
Once the $80K low was swiped (T1), I suggested (on Jan 31st) that the next bearish target would be hit at $60K (+/-2K).

On Feb 6th, my $60K target was hit, and the anticipated significant bounce to follow (20%)

On Feb 6th, I outlined the typical bottoming structures and targets based on my studies of historical price action and statistical analysis. This lead me to expect a bounce from $60K to $71K (+/-1K)...and then a minimum retrace to $62-$65K

On Feb 6th my bullish target at $71K was hit and I suggested that it had met resistance and would be rejected down to my next bearish target ($62K-$65K).

That target of $65K was hit yesterday, as seen in today's chart.

Those that follow me know that I was warning of this significant drop since I mentioned the "three red week down rule" since Sept 2025. I said not only would btc soon crash, but also top alts would follow (ie xrp). This chart called the top for $XRP :

This chart called the top for BTC:

TA works! It works on all assests, in all time frames, across all markets. The question is how? How can someone like me be so "strangely accurate"? After all I don't have a crystal ball. Please know I'm not boasting, I've just been doing this a long time and I want to show you how predicatable it can be. Hopefully this will encourage you to learn TA. Also, I post here to keep track of my calls and to share my trading ideas (I want us all to succeed). Hopefully this offers some insights as to how effective technical analysis can be. I encourage you all to become students of this trade. Education is the only way we can gain any competitve edge in these fast moving markets.

Congratulations to everyone that has taken these trades and are in significant profit.

#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #Xrp🔥🔥

Bitcoin’s rejection at $70,000 and the large liquidity void below leave $60,000 vulnerable, a move analysts see as likely in the coming days.
$BTC $66,989 price fell to $65,800 on Wednesday, slipping back below key intraday trend lines and raising concerns that last week’s drop to $60,000 may not have been the final bottom. Now, analysts say the possibility of another drop to the yearly low ($59,800) is increasing due to a growing liquidity gap between $66,000 and $60,000. 
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs after repeated rejections near the $70,000–$72,000 resistance zone.The relative strength index (RSI) is trending toward oversold levels as the price trades below key moving averages.The liquidation heatmap indicated an absence of liquidity up to $60,500, keeping the risk of a downside price move open.
Failure to hold $70,000 weakens Bitcoin’s short-term prospects
Bitcoin’s one-hour chart shows multiple failed attempts to hold above $70,000. Each rejection has led to lower price highs and steady selling pressure.
BTC’s price briefly pushed into intraday highs of $69,800 before reversing sharply during the New York session on Wednesday, forming a classic swing failure pattern. The move trapped breakout longs and accelerated downside momentum.

$BTC also traded below both the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages, confirming short-term bearish control. The RSI remained below 50, indicating limited buying pressure.
A 15-minute order block sits near the $60,800–$61,000 region, an area where strong buying pressure previously stepped in after BTC printed a yearly bottom at $59,800. This region remains a liquidity target if $64,000 fails to hold.
Heatmap data shows $60,000 is a liquidity magnet
Bitcoin’s liquidity heatmaps reveal stacked orders above $72,000, but it also highlights a “liquidity void” from $66,000 to $60,500. This “liquidity void” may act as a magnet, as price tends to move quickly through low-liquidity areas to tap concentrated stop clusters below.

Despite more visible liquidity being higher, the downside remains open as a final stack of leveraged longs worth over $350 million is still positioned near $60,500.
Bitcoin trader Husky said Bitcoin is slipping below the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) drawn from last week’s lows at $59,800, a level that is acting as a short-term fair value. 
With the overall market structure starting to weaken, a lack of a swift recovery above $68,000 increases the risk of further downside toward lower support levels near $65,000. For now, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a broad $60,000 to $72,000 range, according to the trader.

Likewise, market analyst EliZ noted that $BTC is consolidating near $66,500 inside a descending channel. A break below this level may send the price toward the $63,400–$64,600 support zone, increasing the odds of a revisit to $60,000.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

From an analyst’s perspective, the most striking feature of this session is not the size of the declines, but the synchronization across asset classes. Equities, metals, and crypto moved lower at the same time, which usually points to a macro-driven liquidity shift rather than an isolated sector event.
What the Numbers Suggest
Based on the intraday price structures visible across the charts:
• S&P 500: roughly a 1–1.5% decline during the session
• Dow Jones: about a 1% drop
• Nasdaq: closer to a 2% move lower, leading the selloff
• Gold: down around 0.5–1%
• Silver: weaker than gold, approximately 1.5–2% lower
• Bitcoin: the most volatile, roughly a 3–4% pullback from local highs
These magnitudes matter because they show risk assets falling first and hardest, with defensive assets failing to provide a hedge.
Why Nasdaq Matters Most
Nasdaq often acts as a forward indicator for broader risk sentiment. When technology stocks accelerate downward, it typically reflects:
• Reduced risk appetite
• Higher sensitivity to interest rate expectations
• Liquidity being withdrawn from high-growth sectors
Crypto tends to react quickly to these shifts, which explains why Bitcoin’s decline was sharper but closely timed with the equity selloff.
The Gold Signal: Liquidity Stress, Not Panic Buying
One of the most telling details is that gold declined alongside equities.
In classic risk-off scenarios, gold usually rises as investors seek safety. When both fall together, it often suggests:
• A strengthening U.S. dollar
• Rising real yields
• Funds reducing exposure broadly to raise cash
This pattern has historically appeared during periods of liquidity tightening rather than fear-driven hedging.
Silver’s Relative Weakness
Silver dropping faster than gold reinforces the same narrative.
Unlike gold, silver has a strong industrial demand component, so it reacts not only to monetary conditions but also to expectations about economic growth. A larger decline in silver often signals concerns about slowing activity or reduced demand expectations.
Bitcoin’s Structure: Short-Term Pressure Remains
Technically, Bitcoin’s price action shows:
• A sequence of lower highs
• Sharp impulsive moves downward
• Weak and brief recovery attempts
This structure typically indicates that selling pressure remains dominant in the short term, and any bounce is likely to depend heavily on stabilization in equities.
What I’m Watching Next
From a market-structure standpoint, three signals would suggest conditions are stabilizing:
1. Nasdaq stops making new intraday lows
2. Gold begins to hold support or recover
3. Bitcoin volatility compresses, indicating selling exhaustion
When these signals appear together, the probability of a short-term recovery usually increases.
Final View
This session does not look like a crypto-specific event or a single-sector correction.
It looks like a broad liquidity adjustment, where capital is being pulled back across multiple markets simultaneously.
And historically, when correlations rise and everything moves in the same direction, the underlying driver is rarely sentiment alone—it is almost always macro conditions and liquidity.

#BTC #bitcoin #XAU $BTC $XAU

Chỉ còn bốn ngày giao dịch trước Tết Nguyên đán 2026 , thị trường tài chính toàn cầu đã trải qua một “Thứ Sáu Đen” thực thụ.

Nasdaq giảm gần 3%, vàng và bạc – hai tài sản trú ẩn truyền thống – bất ngờ lao dốc mạnh, $BTC thủng sâu nhiều mức hỗ trợ quan trọng với mức giảm hơn 5% trong phiên. Toàn bộ tài sản rủi ro bị bán tháo ồ ạt, tạo nên cảnh “bán tất cả để lấy tiền mặt” hiếm thấy. BTC hiện đang giao dịch quanh 66.468 USD, giảm 0,92% trong 24 giờ gần nhất (dữ liệu cập nhật).

Chuyện gì đã xảy ra?

Nguyên nhân trực tiếp đến từ hai cú sốc đồng thời:
Dữ liệu lạm phát Mỹ (CPI) tốt hơn dự kiến nhưng theo hướng “phục hồi” (tức lạm phát cao hơn kỳ vọng của thị trường).Các quan chức Fed liên tiếp phát đi tín hiệu diều hâu, khiến nhà đầu tư lo ngại lãi suất sẽ duy trì ở mức cao lâu hơn.
Kết quả: thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ lao dốc, kéo theo toàn bộ tài sản rủi ro. Vàng – bạc mất vai trò trú ẩn, $BTC mất luôn danh hiệu “vàng kỹ thuật số”. Các tổ chức lớn vội vàng thanh lý vị thế trước kỳ nghỉ Tết dài, thanh khoản mua cực kỳ mỏng, dẫn đến long squeeze (ép buộc nhà đầu tư margin long phải bán cắt lỗ) mạnh mẽ.

Dấu hiệu “đáy đã gần kề” dù bề mặt vẫn hoảng loạn

Dù cảm giác thị trường đang “tan nát”, dữ liệu sâu lại cho thấy những tín hiệu tích cực hiếm có:
On-chain (Glassnode): Trong vòng 4 giờ sau cú sụp, các cá voi nắm 100–1.000 BTC không những không bán mà còn mua ròng 2.300 BTC. Đây là hành động tích lũy rõ ràng của “smart money”.Chỉ báo kỹ thuật: RSI hàng ngày chạm vùng quá bán 25 – mức đã dự báo chính xác các đợt phục hồi mạnh trong 6 tháng qua.Thị trường quyền chọn: Dù nhà đầu tư bán lẻ than trời trên mạng xã hội, khối lượng quyền chọn mua (call) kỳ hạn cuối tháng 2 (sau Tết) lại tăng mạnh, độ biến động ngụ ý (IV) vọt lên. Các quỹ lớn đang lặng lẽ đặt cược vào một đợt bật tăng mạnh sau kỳ nghỉ.
Hướng dẫn giao dịch trong giai đoạn này
Trader Aoying (@thankUcrypto) nhận định:
“BTC đang bị kéo xuống bởi xu hướng chung của thị trường tài chính toàn cầu. Đây là thị trường gấu ngắn hạn. Ưu tiên số 1 là bảo toàn vốn, giảm tần suất giao dịch, tuyệt đối tránh giao dịch ngược xu hướng thường xuyên.”Chiến lược hợp lý hiện tại:
Giảm leverage, thu hẹp vị thế.Chỉ giữ những coin có nền tảng vững và dòng vốn cá voi đang tích lũy.Chuẩn bị dòng tiền để mua dip nếu các tín hiệu on-chain và quyền chọn tiếp tục xác nhận.
Kết luận: “Thiên nga đen” này sẽ kéo dài bao lâu?

Từ góc nhìn dữ liệu, đây không phải là khởi đầu của một bear market dài hạn, mà là một đợt thanh lọc thanh khoản mạnh trước Tết – điển hình của các năm có kỳ nghỉ lớn của Trung Quốc.

Các dấu hiệu cá voi tích lũy + RSI quá bán + dòng tiền quyền chọn đặt cược phục hồi sau Tết cho thấy xác suất cao sự kiện này sẽ kết thúc nhanh trong 1–2 tuần tới, khi dòng tiền quay trở lại sau kỳ nghỉ.

Thị trường đang ở giai đoạn “bán vì sợ hãi, mua vì lý trí”.
Hãy giữ bình tĩnh, bảo vệ vốn, và sẵn sàng cho nhịp phục hồi mạnh mẽ sau Tết Nguyên đán 2026.Bạn đang làm gì lúc này: hold, cash, hay đang tìm dip mua? Comment bên dưới nhé!
#BTC #bitcoin #Crypto #Tet2026 #BlackFriday