btcanalysis

Долго изучала график биткоина и наткнулась на интересный момент: как ведёт себя импульс рынка в разных циклах если смотреть на RSI.
Графики показывают повторяющуюся закономерность, и её стоит учитывать, даже если рынок растёт.

Сила импульса слабеет с каждым циклом
В каждом крупном росте стоит заметить, что $BTC не может создавать новый максимум RSI выше предыдущего цикла. Обратите внимание на белую линию на графике, тут всё очевидно, особенно это интересно выглядит на ATX 126199, складывается впечатление, что ещё тогда индикатор подсказывал о снижении BTC.
Индикатор продолжает следовать нисходящей линии, не пробивая её вверх.
Это говорит о простом: цена всё ещё растёт, но за ростом стоит всё меньше силы.
Биткоин может достигнуть новых максимумов, но для этого потребуется больше ликвидности, усилий и хороших, позитивных новостей. Со временем ослабление импульса - это сигнал, на который стоит обратить внимание, ведь за ним может скрываться что-то большее.
RSI часто показывает более низкий минимум перед дном.
А в белых кругах я отметила минимумы RSI, как видите иногда он формирует минимум ниже предыдущего цикла перед тем, как $BTC действительно достигает своего дна. Но, пространство для движения индикатора вниз ещё есть, если сравнить с прошлым минимумом RCI.
Если эта закономерность повторится, это может означать, что настоящего снижения мы ещё не видели.
Другими словами, возможны ещё более значительное снижение, о которых многие инвесторы пока не догадываются, ведь все стараются думать позитивно.
Почему уровень 60 000 ключевой? Рассмотрим на логарифмическом графике.

Точка в 60 000, это не обычная точка, первое, там была активная торговля, обратите внимание на белую линию, долгое время ранее цена стояла практически на одном месте, соответственно там скопилось много ликвидности которую несколько дней назад сняли.
Но самое важное, это жёлтая линия, та линия, которая показывает нам восходящий тренд, мы видели лишь касание этой линии и мощный отскок, если цена спустится ниже 60 000, этот уровень ломает долгосрочную линию роста.
Было ли такое ранее? Да, в марте 2020 года. Посмотрите на зелёную линию рядом с красной стрелкой. После ее пересечения Биткоин за неделю упал с 6931 до 3850 на 44.44%.
Больше как вы видете по жёлтой линии таких случаев не было.
Что может случиться если всё-таки мы увидем выход за жёлтую линию?
Я всегда ищу закономерности и можно рассмотреть возможный сценарий на примере ситуации которая случилась ранее (с 6931 до 3850 на 44.44%). Снижение с 60 000 на 44.44% что составит 33 336, конечно печально, но не так сильно если смотреть на снижения по циклам.
Если смотреть по последнему циклу -76.3% от АТХ и спроицировать его на текущий максимум в 126 199, то получим цену в 29 909 это может стать первым в истории Биткоина серьёзным нарушением долгосрочного макротренда. Это будет не повторение циклов, а то, что мы ещё никогда не видели.
Вывод
Биткоин остаётся Биткоином, и в краткосрочной перспективе всё возможно. Это лишь возможные сценарии основанные на предыдущих движениях.
Но тренд RSI по циклам -серьёзный сигнал, а уровень 60 000 остаётся ключевым.
Если он будет пробит, это может быть не просто коррекцией, а первым настоящим структурным сбоем в истории Биткоина.
Как вы считаете, станет ли уровень 60 000 точкой старта для новых максимумов или откроет путь к глубокой коррекции?
#WhenWillBTCRebound #btc70k #BTCanalysis #analysis
@Binance_Square_Official

, raising concerns among traders and analysts about a possible deeper correction — potentially even toward the $50,000 region. Over the weekend, Bitcoin managed a short-term rebound of nearly 3%, offering temporary relief after Friday’s sharp sell-off. However, this bounce has done little to convince the broader market that selling pressure has fully subsided.

Losses that began late last week extended into the weekend, keeping volatility elevated. Although Bitcoin briefly reclaimed a key technical level, uncertainty remains high as market participants debate whether macroeconomic factors and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are strong enough to provide meaningful support. On-chain data and technical indicators suggest the market is still in a transition phase, with no confirmed directional trend.

Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin continues to mirror its 2022 bear market structure, a move toward fresh macro lows cannot be ruled out. In this context, long-term indicators such as the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) have become critical reference points. This zone is widely viewed as a battleground between bulls and bears. Holding above it could strengthen the recovery narrative, while a breakdown would likely open the door to further downside.

Another growing concern revolves around U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Current estimates suggest the average ETF cost basis sits near $82,000, placing many holders in unrealized losses at current prices. Continued downside could intensify pressure, potentially triggering additional selling and further weakening market sentiment.

Several veteran traders also argue that the market has yet to experience a true capitulation phase. According to this view, a more convincing bottom may only form if Bitcoin falls below $50,000, forcing late buyers and ETF participants to confront deeper losses. From this perspective, the recent bounce may represent a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

That said, not all analysts agree that history will repeat itself exactly. While similarities to past cycles exist, structural changes — including institutional participation and regulated investment vehicles — could lead to different outcomes. As such, a drop to $50,000 should be viewed as a risk scenario, not a certainty.

In the broader context, the crypto market remains weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainty, tight liquidity conditions, and risk-averse investor behavior. ETF flows, on-chain metrics, and global economic signals are collectively shaping Bitcoin’s next move. Until the asset begins to print higher lows and regain sustained momentum, heightened volatility is likely to persist.

In the coming days, traders will be closely watching the $58,000–$68,000 support zone, long-term moving average levels, and ETF flow data. A strong defense of these areas could gradually improve sentiment, while a decisive breakdown may set the stage for another wave of selling.

For now, Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point. The current consolidation could either evolve into a solid base for recovery or become the precursor to a deeper correction. Given the stakes, most market participants are choosing caution, closely monitoring price behavior as the next major move takes shape.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #MarketVolatility #TradingInsights $BTC

$BTC
🚀 Position Long +
Bitcoin is showing a clear structure shift on the daily timeframe after strong rejection from the bearish flag resistance. Sellers are still active, but short-term relief moves are tradable — and that’s exactly where this long setup came from.

Here’s the clean breakdown 👇

🔹 Market rejected from bearish flag resistance
🔹 Downtrend structure still valid overall
🔹 New consolidation range forming (possible mini flag)
🔹 Short-term bounce zone: $73K–$75K
🔹 Major reclaim level for trend strength: $89K–$91K

💰 Trade Status
✅ Long position active
✅ First target hit
✅ Locked in: +$1,800 profit
🎯 Next target: ~$73K zone
🛡 Stop managed to protect gains

⚠️ If BTC fails to hold strength near 73K–75K, expect another bearish expansion.
🔥 If BTC reclaims higher resistance levels → momentum shift → squeeze toward 89K+ possible.

Engagement trigger for Binance Square algorithm 👇
What’s your next BTC level — 75K or 60K first? Comment your bias.

#Write2Earn #BTC #bitcoin #CryptoTrading #priceaction #BTCAnalysis #longtrade

jisse traders aur analysts mein concern barh gaya hai ke shayad aur bhi neeche girawat aa sakti hai — mumkin hai $50,000 tak bhi. Weekend ke doran, Bitcoin ne 3% tak short-term rebound dikhaya, jo Friday ke tez sell-off ke baad temporary relief diya. Lekin ye bounce market ko ye yaqeen dilane ke liye kaafi nahi hai ke selling pressure khatam ho gaya hai.

Losses jo pichlay haftay ke end mein shuru hue the, weekend tak barqaraar rahe, jisse volatility high rahi. Halanki Bitcoin ne briefly aik important technical level wapas hasil kiya, uncertainty abhi bhi barqarar hai kyunke market participants debate kar rahe hain ke macroeconomic factors aur spot Bitcoin ETF inflows kaafi strong hain ya nahi support dene ke liye. On-chain data aur technical indicators dikhate hain ke market abhi bhi transition phase mein hai, aur koi confirmed directional trend nahi hai.

Kuch analysts warn karte hain ke agar Bitcoin apni 2022 bear market structure ko follow karta hai, to fresh macro lows tak ja sakta hai. Is context mein, long-term indicators jaise 200-week SMA aur 200-week EMA critical reference points ban gaye hain. Ye zone widely dekha jata hai bull aur bear ke beech ek battleground ke taur par. Agar ye level hold hota hai to recovery narrative strong ho sakta hai, aur agar break hota hai to further downside khul sakta hai.

Ek aur concern U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ke around hai. Current estimates ke mutabiq, average ETF cost basis lagbhag $82,000 ke aas paas hai, jisse kayi holders unrealized losses mein hain current prices par. Agar downside continue hota hai to aur pressure barh sakta hai, aur additional selling trigger ho sakti hai, jisse market sentiment weak ho jayega.

Kuch veteran traders ka maanna hai ke market ne abhi tak asli capitulation phase nahi dekhi. Unke nazdeek, ek convincing bottom sirf tab banega jab Bitcoin $50,000 se neeche jaayega, jisse late buyers aur ETF participants ko gehri losses ka samna karna padega. Is perspective se, halia bounce sirf relief rally ho sakta hai, trend reversal nahi.

Lekin har analyst ka ye maanna nahi hai ke history exact repeat hogi. Past cycles ke similarities to hain, lekin structural changes — jaise institutional participation aur regulated investment vehicles — outcomes ko change kar sakte hain. Isliye $50,000 tak girawat ko risk scenario samajhna chahiye, certainty nahi.

Bara context ye hai ke crypto market abhi bhi macroeconomic uncertainty, tight liquidity conditions, aur risk-averse investor behavior ke pressure mein hai. ETF flows, on-chain metrics, aur global economic signals collectively shape kar rahe hain Bitcoin ka next move. Jab tak asset higher lows print nahi karta aur sustained momentum wapas nahi aata, heightened volatility barqarar rahegi.

Agle kuch dinon mein traders closely watch karenge $58,000–$68,000 support zone, long-term moving average levels, aur ETF flow data. Agar ye areas strong defend hotay hain to sentiment gradually improve ho sakta hai, aur agar decisive breakdown hota hai to nayi selling wave aa sakti hai.

Abhi ke liye, Bitcoin aik critical inflection point par hai. Current consolidation ya to solid base mein evolve ho sakti hai recovery ke liye, ya phir deeper correction ka precursor ban sakti hai. Stakes ke madde nazar, zyada tar market participants caution prefer kar rahe hain aur closely price behavior monitor kar rahe hain agle major move ke liye.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #MarketVolatility #TradingInsights $BTC

After Bitcoin's steep price drop, one question keeps circulating: "Have we reached the bottom, or is this just the start of more pain?"

Here’s my take on $BTC after this sell-off. Let’s explore a few possibilities that could shape its next moves.

A Surprise Event, Not a Bear Market Shift
This recent sell-off might not be part of a bear market at all. It could have been triggered by a one-off, unexpected event—what we call a black swan. In this case:
The decline could be short-lived.
The damage to market structure may heal quickly.
Price could rebound rapidly once the uncertainty clears up.
This theory explains the sharp downturn without needing to believe we’re entering a long-term bear market.
Bear Markets Don’t Usually Recover with a V-Shaped Bounce
Let’s be real: bear markets don’t often bottom out with a clean, V-shaped recovery. If this marks the beginning of a longer bSurpriseins might feel too good to be true.
Fast recoveries usually end in failure.
Patience will be more important than prediction.
While quick price jumps can happen, they don’t necessarily signal that the “bottom” is in. It’s important to stay grounded and avoid premature optimism.

A Range-Bound Market Before a Clearer Shift
Markets often need time to heal. After a major sell-off, the usual pattern looks like this:

A strong initial bounce.
Followed by weeks or months of sideways movement.
Eventually, a clearer price direction begins to emerge.This range-bound phase is where market sentiment resets. It's when the big players start re-establishing their positions, setting the stage for the next major move.
Key Takeaway
Right now, it’s not about pinpointing the exact bottom. It’s about watching BTC’s behavior after the bounce:
Will BTC reclaim its previous structure quickly?
Will it settle back into a sideways range?
Or will it break down again and push even lower?
The answers won’t come from one candle alone; they’ll emerge over time as we observe the price action.
Another important point: BTC recently faced resistance at the Weekly 200 Moving Average. Historically, this level has acted as a key indicator of market cycles. In previous bear markets, BTC has spent time trading below the 200 MA before forming a durable bottom. So, a dip below this level wouldn’t indicate weakness—it could actually help confirm that we’re nearing a bear market bottom.
#BTCAnalysis #CryptoMarketTrend #BitcoinRrcovery

‎Today is Sunday, and traditional international markets are closed. However, Bitcoin never sleeps — and this pause gives traders a valuable moment to analyze calmly, plan wisely, and manage risk intelligently.

‎
‎📊 BTC Current Market Snapshot (4-Hour Basis)

‎4H High: $71,690

‎4H Low: $67,250

‎Bitcoin is currently trading inside a wide but healthy consolidation range, reflecting a balance between profit-taking and fresh accumulation. This zone is technically important and often acts as a decision area before the next major move.

‎
‎🔄 Bitcoin Weekly Performance Review (Last 7 Days)

‎The past week tested the patience of traders and investors:

‎BTC saw strong volatility, dipping sharply earlier in the week

‎Panic selling pushed price towards lower zones, shaking weak hands

‎Mid-week recovery brought BTC back above $70,000, showing buyers are still active

‎Overall, BTC closed the week mixed but resilient, holding above major long-term supports

‎👉 This behavior clearly signals that Bitcoin is not dead — it is digesting.

‎
‎📈 Technical & Tactical Outlook

‎🟢 Bullish Scenario (Hope for Genuine Buyers)

‎If Bitcoin successfully holds above $67,250 support:

‎Buyers may regain confidence

‎Price can revisit $70,500 – $71,500

‎A confirmed breakout above $72,000 may open the path toward:

‎$74,000 – $76,000 in coming sessions

‎📌 This scenario favors patient retail buyers who avoid leverage and respect risk management. Accumulation near strong support zones is often where smart money builds positions quietly.

‎
‎🔴 Bearish Scenario (Risk Awareness)

‎If BTC fails to hold $67,250 decisively:

‎Short-term pullback toward $64,000 – $63,000 is possible

‎Extreme fear could test $60,000 psychological support

‎⚠️ This is not a failure, but a liquidity sweep zone, where forced sellers exit and stronger hands often enter.

‎
‎🛡️ Management – The Real Key

‎✔ Avoid over-leverage

‎✔ Use stop-loss below key supports

‎✔ Trade with partial positions

‎✔ Protect capital first — profit comes later

‎In crypto, survival is success.

‎
‎🌱 Message of Hope for Retail Investors

‎Bitcoin has survived:

‎Crashes

‎Bans

‎Fear cycles

‎Bear markets

‎And every time, it returned stronger.

‎Volatility is not the enemy — emotion is.

‎Retail investors who stay disciplined, informed, and patient are the ones who benefit most when the dust settles.

‎
‎🧠 Final Thought

‎Bitcoin is currently in a decision phase, not a collapse.

‎Whether the next move is bullish or bearish, opportunity exists on both sides — only for those who trade with knowledge, patience, and risk control.

‎
‎Stay calm. Stay strategic. Stay hopeful.

‎
‎#bitcoin #BTCanalysis #WeeklyBTC #CryptoMarketMoves #Binance



‎

$BTC has now crashed -53% in just 120 days without any major negative news or event and this is not normal.

Macro pressure plays a role, but it’s not the main reason Bitcoin keeps dumping. The real driver is something much bigger that most people aren’t talking about yet.

Bitcoin’s original valuation model was built on the idea that supply is fixed at 21 million coins and that price moves based on real buying and selling of those coins. In the early cycles, this was mostly true. But today, that structure has changed.

A large share of Bitcoin trading activity now happens through synthetic markets rather than spot markets.

This includes:

• Futures contracts
• Perpetual swaps
• Options markets
• ETFs
• Prime broker lending
• Wrapped BTC
• Structured products

All of these allow exposure to Bitcoin’s price without requiring actual Bitcoin to move on chain. This changes how price is discovered because now selling pressure can come from derivative positioning rather than real holders selling coins.

For example:

If institutions open large short positions in futures markets, price can fall even if no spot Bitcoin is sold.

If leveraged long traders get liquidated, forced selling happens through derivatives, accelerating downside moves. This creates cascade effects where liquidations drive price, not spot supply.

That is why recent sell offs look very structured. You see long liquidation waves, funding flips negative, open interest collapses, all signs that derivatives positioning is driving the move.

So while Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed, the effective tradable supply influencing price has expanded through synthetic exposure.

Price today reacts to leverage, hedging flows, and positioning, not just spot demand.

Adding to this, there are other factors too driving the current dump.

GLOBAL ASSET SELL-OFF

Right now, selling is not isolated to crypto. Stocks are declining. Gold and silver have seen volatility. Risk assets across markets are correcting.

When global markets move into risk-off mode, capital exits high-risk assets first and crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve. So Bitcoin reacts more aggressively to global sell offs.

MACRO UNCERTAINTY & GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Tensions around global conflicts, especially U.S.–Iran developments, are creating uncertainty.

Whenever geopolitical risk rises, supply chain risks increase, and markets shift toward defensive positioning. That environment is not supportive for risk assets.

FED LIQUIDITY EXPECTATIONS

Markets had been pricing a more dovish liquidity backdrop. But expectations around future policy leadership and liquidity stance have shifted.

If investors believe future Fed policy will be tighter on liquidity even if rates eventually fall, risk assets reprice lower.

ECONOMIC DATA WEAKNESS

Recent economic indicators job market trends, housing demand, credit stress are pointing toward slowing growth conditions. When recession fears rise, markets derisk.

Crypto, being the most volatile asset class, sees outsized downside during those transitions.

STRUCTURED SELLING VS CAPITULATION

Another important observation:

This sell off does not look like panic capitulation. It looks structured.

Consecutive red candles, controlled downside moves, and derivative driven liquidations suggest large entities reducing exposure, not retail panic selling.

When institutional positioning unwinds, it suppresses bounce attempts because dip buyers wait for stability before re-entering.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

It is a combination of:

• Derivatives driven price discovery
• Synthetic supply exposure
• Global risk-off flows
• Liquidity expectation shifts
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Weak macro data
• Institutional positioning unwind

Until these pressures stabilize, relief rallies can happen, but sustained upside becomes harder.