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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
marchealo:
❤️❤️❤️
这波#btc 暴跌来自外网最受认可的分析贴如图。
省流版：香港的对冲基金，本来不是专玩币的传统金融玩家。他们借了超便宜的日元，高杠杆买了BlackRock比特币ETF（IBIT）的看涨期权——那种赌比特币大涨的远期便宜“彩票”，杠杆很高。
他们赌去年10月大跌后会反弹，结果反弹没等到，比特币继续往下走；同时日元借钱成本涨了（套利交易开始崩），他们可能还重仓白银/黄金（白银单日暴跌20%+），多条线全亏爆。
经纪商追保证金，他们扛不住，只能被迫狂卖IBIT的股份和期权平仓。
结果那天IBIT交易量爆到107亿美元（历史纪录，几乎翻倍），期权也创9000万美元新高。
这些卖单直接砸到比特币现货，引发连锁恐慌，把BTC从70k+闪崩到60k附近。
省流版：香港的对冲基金，本来不是专玩币的传统金融玩家。他们借了超便宜的日元，高杠杆买了BlackRock比特币ETF（IBIT）的看涨期权——那种赌比特币大涨的远期便宜“彩票”，杠杆很高。
他们赌去年10月大跌后会反弹，结果反弹没等到，比特币继续往下走；同时日元借钱成本涨了（套利交易开始崩），他们可能还重仓白银/黄金（白银单日暴跌20%+），多条线全亏爆。
经纪商追保证金，他们扛不住，只能被迫狂卖IBIT的股份和期权平仓。
结果那天IBIT交易量爆到107亿美元（历史纪录，几乎翻倍），期权也创9000万美元新高。
这些卖单直接砸到比特币现货，引发连锁恐慌，把BTC从70k+闪崩到60k附近。
Revisando gráfico y haciendo seguimiento desde la caída hasta la subida, haciendo cuentas de los que impulsaron el #btc si no se logra los 82k en las próximas 48 horas, veremos una caída a 38-42, si es que no sucede antes, esto ya no es cuestión de que hay presión de bajar o subir, la cuestión es que hay menos volumenes de compras. Solo opino que el que se arriesga debe tener mente fría y aceptar la posible caída, igual estoy dispuesto a tomar el riesgo y tú ?
Этот график предсказывает, что динамика практически идентична динамике цикла 2021 года.
И если история повторится, биткойн может скатиться до отметки в 36 000 долларов 👀
Вот почему медведи ждут 36k
#btc
И если история повторится, биткойн может скатиться до отметки в 36 000 долларов 👀
Вот почему медведи ждут 36k
#btc
Clementine-Kenny:
Дай угадаю, закупился на свои 7 баксов по 126к за биток и ждёшь перехай? Под каждым постом так усердно сам себя обманываешь и успокаиваешь)
In my point of view #btc will remain bearing untill it not break 97924 level and on th other side if it breaks 60000 level then it will touch next level 48000 so best value for sell is 97000 if it breaks 60000 its better to sell entry at its retesting that level seeking no demand in that area.
$BTC
$BTC
$BTC
$BTC
$BTC The recovery from the $60K support and selling climax continues toward higher resistance.
Entry : 71350
SL: 66500
TP1: 72500
TP2: 73400
TP3: 74100
Trade $BTC here 👇
#USIranStandoff #btc #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge
Entry : 71350
SL: 66500
TP1: 72500
TP2: 73400
TP3: 74100
Trade $BTC here 👇
#USIranStandoff #btc #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge
𝐓𝐎𝐏 𝐓𝐄𝐍 𝐂𝐑𝐘𝐏𝐓𝐎 𝐇𝐄𝐀𝐃𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐒
➠ Bitmine is now ~71% complete with its goal to own 5% of the $ETH supply.
➠ Circle and Tether own 84.8% of the stablecoin market.
➠ Illinois proposes a budget-neutral Community Bitcoin Reserve, starting with Altgeld and secured in multisig cold storage.
➠ ETH ETFs bled $170M+ in weekly outflows. SOL ETFs held up better, but still lost $9M+.
➠ White House stablecoin talks are back Tuesday and the banks just joined the room, per Eleanor Terrett.
➠ 21Shares files for an ONDO ETF.
➠ Bitcoin mining difficulty just saw the biggest negative adjustment since China’s 2021 mining ban.
➠ Vietnam plans a 0.1% tax on crypto trades, treating digital assets like stocks.
➠ CFTC expands stablecoin rules to let national trust banks issue dollar-pegged tokens under the GENIUS Act framework.
➠ Despite starting and ending the week well, the $BTC ETFs still saw a weekly net outflow over $358M.
#TrendingTopic #MarketSentimentToday #Market_Update #btc
➠ Bitmine is now ~71% complete with its goal to own 5% of the $ETH supply.
➠ Circle and Tether own 84.8% of the stablecoin market.
➠ Illinois proposes a budget-neutral Community Bitcoin Reserve, starting with Altgeld and secured in multisig cold storage.
➠ ETH ETFs bled $170M+ in weekly outflows. SOL ETFs held up better, but still lost $9M+.
➠ White House stablecoin talks are back Tuesday and the banks just joined the room, per Eleanor Terrett.
➠ 21Shares files for an ONDO ETF.
➠ Bitcoin mining difficulty just saw the biggest negative adjustment since China’s 2021 mining ban.
➠ Vietnam plans a 0.1% tax on crypto trades, treating digital assets like stocks.
➠ CFTC expands stablecoin rules to let national trust banks issue dollar-pegged tokens under the GENIUS Act framework.
➠ Despite starting and ending the week well, the $BTC ETFs still saw a weekly net outflow over $358M.
#TrendingTopic #MarketSentimentToday #Market_Update #btc
SOLUSDT
Безсрочно
15X
Отваряне на дълга позиция
Нереализирана PNL
+0,29USDT
$BTC BTC price recently slipped from highs above $90k, with volatility picking up as technical and macro signals tug in opposite directions. Key support and resistance zones are shaping near current levels — $85k is acting as a critical pivot, while breaks below $70k–$80k could signal deeper correction pressure in the short term. 
🔍 Short-Term Technicals
• Price continues to experience downward pressure and drawdowns, with bearish setups noted by market analysts. 
• Some forecasts see BTC bouncing back toward $95k–$110k if key resistance is reclaimed. 
📌 Intermediate Outlook (2026 Cycle)
Analyst views vary widely, which is par for the course in crypto:
• Bearish correction scenario: Classic extended Elliott Wave or extended bear pattern could push prices lower into mid-2026 before recovery resumes.
• Bullish range: Some forecasts still project targets well above current levels if historical cycle patterns and increasing institutional demand hold — with six-figure price zones possible mid-to-late 2026.
#btc #BTC走势分析 #BTC突破7万大关
🔍 Short-Term Technicals
• Price continues to experience downward pressure and drawdowns, with bearish setups noted by market analysts. 
• Some forecasts see BTC bouncing back toward $95k–$110k if key resistance is reclaimed. 
📌 Intermediate Outlook (2026 Cycle)
Analyst views vary widely, which is par for the course in crypto:
• Bearish correction scenario: Classic extended Elliott Wave or extended bear pattern could push prices lower into mid-2026 before recovery resumes.
• Bullish range: Some forecasts still project targets well above current levels if historical cycle patterns and increasing institutional demand hold — with six-figure price zones possible mid-to-late 2026.
#btc #BTC走势分析 #BTC突破7万大关
$BTC ANALYSIS 📈
Currently, $BTC is trading at a resistance zone, which is why the price has paused here and isn’t giving a strong upside move.
For now, simply wait for a clean breakout above the red zone then we can plan longs.
If someone missed the lower entry, the alternate plan is to wait for a pullback to the green demand zone near 68k.
Also, keep an eye on the 1D candle close. We may see a good move in BTC tomorrow.
Till then, trade safe and wait for confirmation. 🚀📊
$BTC #btc #ETH
Currently, $BTC is trading at a resistance zone, which is why the price has paused here and isn’t giving a strong upside move.
For now, simply wait for a clean breakout above the red zone then we can plan longs.
If someone missed the lower entry, the alternate plan is to wait for a pullback to the green demand zone near 68k.
Also, keep an eye on the 1D candle close. We may see a good move in BTC tomorrow.
Till then, trade safe and wait for confirmation. 🚀📊
$BTC #btc #ETH
#plasma $XPL Eugene 访谈录：看清 6 万支撑的真相，别在“解冻”前夜被洗下车
2026 年 2 月 8 日，当大家还在纠结以太坊周跌 29% 的惨状时，Eugene Ng Ah Sio 的一席话点醒了梦中人：生存始终是首要任务。 这位以敏锐察觉市场情绪著称的交易员，在 BTC 反弹 17% 后冷静地指出，6 万美元虽然是合理支撑，但市场底部依然存在变数。
首先，认清 6 万美元支撑的“含金量”。 摩根大通此前指出，BTC 表现优于黄金，而 6 万美元恰好处于机构 ETF 成本线（8.4 万）与生产成本线（8.7 万）下方的“超卖区”。Eugene 在 6 万附近的成功抄底（Bottom-fishing）证明了：当恐慌指数达到极致、25 亿美元清算洗净杠杆时，这里就是最硬的盾牌。对于承压于 0.083 附近的 $XPL 来说，大哥站稳了，它的万分之六份额才有了反攻的基础。
其次，理解 Eugene 的“防守性进攻”。 尽管他看好 6 万支撑，但他警告投资者不要在没有止损的情况下激进做多。目前市场正处于 Wintermute 预言的“快速解冻”期，但这种解冻伴随着剧烈的振幅。2 月 12 日的奖励释放将是最后一次“生存测试”。巨鲸在 Hyperliquid 维持的 3 倍空单，正是为了狙击那些没有生存计划的散户。
实战总结： 听从 Eugene 的建议，把生存放在第一位。守住 0.08 美元，无视 Bithumb 乌龙这类干扰。 既然 11% 的挖矿难度下调已减轻了抛压，既然以太坊交易量创新高反映了真实需求，那么守住筹码就是最好的进攻。守住你的 $XPL ，在 6 万美元的支撑之上，等待那场利空出尽后的独立反击。@Plasma #btc
2026 年 2 月 8 日，当大家还在纠结以太坊周跌 29% 的惨状时，Eugene Ng Ah Sio 的一席话点醒了梦中人：生存始终是首要任务。 这位以敏锐察觉市场情绪著称的交易员，在 BTC 反弹 17% 后冷静地指出，6 万美元虽然是合理支撑，但市场底部依然存在变数。
首先，认清 6 万美元支撑的“含金量”。 摩根大通此前指出，BTC 表现优于黄金，而 6 万美元恰好处于机构 ETF 成本线（8.4 万）与生产成本线（8.7 万）下方的“超卖区”。Eugene 在 6 万附近的成功抄底（Bottom-fishing）证明了：当恐慌指数达到极致、25 亿美元清算洗净杠杆时，这里就是最硬的盾牌。对于承压于 0.083 附近的 $XPL 来说，大哥站稳了，它的万分之六份额才有了反攻的基础。
其次，理解 Eugene 的“防守性进攻”。 尽管他看好 6 万支撑，但他警告投资者不要在没有止损的情况下激进做多。目前市场正处于 Wintermute 预言的“快速解冻”期，但这种解冻伴随着剧烈的振幅。2 月 12 日的奖励释放将是最后一次“生存测试”。巨鲸在 Hyperliquid 维持的 3 倍空单，正是为了狙击那些没有生存计划的散户。
实战总结： 听从 Eugene 的建议，把生存放在第一位。守住 0.08 美元，无视 Bithumb 乌龙这类干扰。 既然 11% 的挖矿难度下调已减轻了抛压，既然以太坊交易量创新高反映了真实需求，那么守住筹码就是最好的进攻。守住你的 $XPL ，在 6 万美元的支撑之上，等待那场利空出尽后的独立反击。@Plasma #btc
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Today’s Market: BTC is trading around $71K–78K, facing volatility after recent corrections. Sentiment is cautious, with extreme fear indicators showing traders are defensive.
- Future Outlook: Models forecast BTC could reach $82K by end of 2026 and potentially $166K by 2030. Macro pressures may cause short‑term dips, but long‑term trajectory remains bullish.
- Trading Note: BTC is range‑bound; good for disciplined swing trades near support levels, but better as a long‑term hold.
#btc #bitcoin
- Today’s Market: BTC is trading around $71K–78K, facing volatility after recent corrections. Sentiment is cautious, with extreme fear indicators showing traders are defensive.
- Future Outlook: Models forecast BTC could reach $82K by end of 2026 and potentially $166K by 2030. Macro pressures may cause short‑term dips, but long‑term trajectory remains bullish.
- Trading Note: BTC is range‑bound; good for disciplined swing trades near support levels, but better as a long‑term hold.
#btc #bitcoin
#USIranStandoff
USA–Iran Tensions and the Quiet Strength of $BTC & ETH
As USA–Iran tensions rise again, markets feel familiar pressure: geopolitical risk, energy uncertainty, and fear-driven volatility.
Historically, such moments push capital toward neutral, borderless assets. Bitcoin benefits as a hedge against geopolitical instability and currency risk, while Ethereum gains as capital flows into decentralized finance, stablecoins, and on-chain settlement during uncertainty. Conflict exposes the fragility of traditional systems $BTC and $ETH represent resilience beyond politics.
For long-term investors, periods of fear have often marked strategic accumulation zones, not exits.
#USIranStandoff #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #btc #ETH
USA–Iran Tensions and the Quiet Strength of $BTC & ETH
As USA–Iran tensions rise again, markets feel familiar pressure: geopolitical risk, energy uncertainty, and fear-driven volatility.
Historically, such moments push capital toward neutral, borderless assets. Bitcoin benefits as a hedge against geopolitical instability and currency risk, while Ethereum gains as capital flows into decentralized finance, stablecoins, and on-chain settlement during uncertainty. Conflict exposes the fragility of traditional systems $BTC and $ETH represent resilience beyond politics.
For long-term investors, periods of fear have often marked strategic accumulation zones, not exits.
#USIranStandoff #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #btc #ETH
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