Top Analyst Says 50% Chance BlackRock ETF Approved And 70% Chance Grayscale Wins Case Against SEC

Top analyst Elliott Z. Stein is very confident that a spot Bitcoin ETF is imminent, and we will have more than one before the end of August 2023. He believes the SEC will try to save face by approving BlackRock's spot ETF application.

BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF a few weeks ago, amidst regulatory uncertainty for the crypto industry. Following the news, the price of Bitcoin went up from $25,000 to over $31,000 before pulling back to the $30,000 region. With spot Bitcoin ETF approval, a surge in the price of Bitcoin and crypto in general is expected.

Another spot Bitcoin ETF widely expected to be approved is the one filed by Grayscale. Grayscale filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, but the SEC denied their request. As a result, the SEC was sued for denying Grayscale's application to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Writing on the possible outcome of the court case against the SEC, Elliott wrote: "Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning it's lawsuit against the SEC over the company's bid to convert Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a Bitcoin ETF, we believe."

On the chances of Grayscale winning, he commented: "The odds increased from 40% after oral agreements, where all three judges on the panel agreed to side with Grayscale based on their lines of questioning. The SEC and Chair Gary Gensler may be bracing for a loss and looking to preemptively soften it or make it meaningless by approving a spot Bitcoin ETF application before or around the same time as a court decision."

Last week, I shared with you two other financial institutions alongside BlackRock that have filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF. You can find the link in my profile. Of the three, BlackRock seems the most likely to get approval.

On when a decision will be made with regards to the Grayscale lawsuit against the SEC, Elliott said: We expect an SEC decision on related 19b-4 fillings in August, with Ark's coming on August 13."

That effectively confirms the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved before the end of August 2023.

If an approval is made before the end of August, what do you think the price of Bitcoin will be? What crypto will have the most gains? Share your thoughts below.