BTC Breaks $70K: Flush or Start of a Reset?
Bitcoin fell about 7% in 24 hours to near $68,400 on November 13, its lowest level since August. It is down roughly $10K in a week and about 45% below its October 2025 high above $126K. Around $1.4B in leveraged positions were liquidated, and about 89% were longs. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 20 (Extreme Fear) from 62 a month ago. Check the live price before trading.
LATEST NEWS AND EVENTS
- Rates: the Fed held in October, but hot inflation data now has a quarter-point hike on December 9 almost fully priced in. Governor Waller backs it, and Bank of America says a 50 bp hike is possible. US PPI data is due today.
- Dollar: the US dollar index hit a 19-month high, which usually weighs on Bitcoin.
- ETFs: US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $2.2B over eight sessions since October 30, the largest eight-session outflow since July. 2026 net flows have turned negative. BlackRock's IBIT led the exits.
- Liquidity: stablecoin supply fell $14.2B in 30 days, the biggest drop since June 2022.
- Stocks: reports that Nvidia's CEO is stepping down rattled US stocks this week.
- Security fears after the $6.3B Binance hack on October 29 still weigh on exchange confidence.
TOKENOMICS
- Max supply: 21M BTC, fixed by code.
- Mined: about 20.1M BTC (roughly 96%).
- New supply: 3.125 BTC per block after the April 2024 halving, about 450 BTC per day, under 1% of supply per year.
- Next halving: expected around April 2028, cutting the block reward to 1.5625 BTC.
- Miner reserves have fallen to about 1.19M BTC, and exchange inflows hit a nine-month high. This points to some selling pressure.
- There is no team allocation and no unlock schedule.
DEEP ANALYSIS
1. This drop is macro-driven. Rate-hike odds, a strong dollar, falling stablecoin supply and ETF outflows all mean less money is flowing in.
2. Fixed supply does not protect the price in the short term. With issuance under 1% a year, price depends almost entirely on demand, and demand is weak. ETFs and company treasuries are the two main sources of spot demand, and both are cooling.
3. Leverage has not fully reset. Open interest is still about $45B, and CryptoQuant warned this week that the correction had not produced the leverage flush seen in past declines. More forced selling is possible.
4. Extreme fear often appears near lows, but not always at the exact bottom. Markets can stay fearful through a Fed hike.
5. Options traders price a 31% chance that Bitcoin ends the year below $70K, against 26% for above $80K.
6. Event risk is high: PPI today and the Fed meeting on December 9.
KEY LEVELS
Support: $68,000 (today's low area), then $66,600, then $64,000, then $60,000.
Resistance: $70,000, then $72,000 to $72,800, then $74,200 to $74,500, then $75,500 to $77,000.
FUTURE SCENARIOS (not predictions)
Bull: Price holds $68,000, then closes above $70,000 and $72,800 on a daily candle. Next targets are $74,500 and $77,000. This needs softer inflation data and ETF flows turning positive.
Base: Price ranges between $66,000 and $72,000 into the December 9 Fed meeting.
Bear: A daily close below $68,000 opens $66,600 and $64,000. A hotter inflation print or a 50 bp hike could push toward $60,000.
RISK
Extreme fear, a leveraged market and big event risk. Avoid high leverage, use a stop-loss, and keep position size small.
Is this a flush or the start of a deeper reset? Comment below.
Not financial advice. Crypto is very risky. Do your own research.
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