I spent weeks trying to build a trend strategy I'd actually trust. Found a good one: when a coin pumps 4–8% in an hour, it tends to keep going. Five years of data, every single year green.
Then I put it in a portfolio and it got ugly.
Less than half the trades win. The top 5% of trades make ALL the profit, the other 95% net out negative. Miss a couple of rockets and your year is red. Drawdowns of −50% on the way.
Return vs drawdown of the best trend version I found: 0.3 to 1.7.
Our counter-trend system on the same coins: 9.3.
Trend works. It just hurts a lot more than people admit.
Measure, don't believe.
#trading #crypto #trend
Then I put it in a portfolio and it got ugly.
Less than half the trades win. The top 5% of trades make ALL the profit, the other 95% net out negative. Miss a couple of rockets and your year is red. Drawdowns of −50% on the way.
Return vs drawdown of the best trend version I found: 0.3 to 1.7.
Our counter-trend system on the same coins: 9.3.
Trend works. It just hurts a lot more than people admit.
Measure, don't believe.
#trading #crypto #trend