Is $80 the line Solana holders defend until Saturday?
After Tuesday's hot US inflation print, $SOL dropped to $81.82, its lowest level since Aug 19, and now sits about four days away from the SEC's final deadline on the VanEck JitoSOL ETF
❓ What happened on Tuesday?
October CPI rose 0.4% m/m (0.3% expected) and core rose 0.3% (0.2% expected).
Fed hike odds for Dec 9 climbed to the high 80s or above on CME FedWatch.
Crypto sold off, and Solana fell harder than Bitcoin: about 4.1% on the day versus roughly 2% for BTC.
CoinGlass shows $37M in SOL liquidations, with more than 96% of them longs.
❓ Where does the market stand?
Price: ~$82.95
24h: −4.1%; 7 days: −11.2%; 30 days: −25.3% Day low: $81.82
Market cap: ~$50B, rank #7 24h
volume: ~$3.6B
❓ Why does Nov 15 matter?
Nasdaq filed to list the VanEck JitoSOL ETF in March. The SEC has used every extension it had, so by Saturday it must approve or reject. The fund would hold JitoSOL, a liquid staking token worth about 1.30 SOL each, not plain SOL. If approved, it would be the first US ETF built on a liquid staking token.
For context, Europe already has a JitoSOL product from 21Shares, and it holds only about $1.19M, so approval alone doesn't guarantee big demand.
❓ What do the charts say?
SOL has closed below its 200-day average ($88.99) for three days and trades about 22% under the 50-day ($106.71).
Daily RSI is 26.8, in oversold territory, and an EMA death cross is approaching.
Resistance: $85, then $89, then $90.4 to $92 (the broken trendline from the June and August lows).
Support: $80 to $82, then $76.6 to $77.6, then about $71.9.
❓ Is the network weakening too?
Not really. DefiLlama shows about 93.5M transactions and 2.71M active addresses in 24h, DEX volume near $1.15B and TVL around $5.04B. About 74% of supply is staked, and the Alpenglow upgrade has been live since Oct 21. The weak spots are money flows: US spot SOL ETFs have bled for five weeks, close to $170M, and stablecoins on Solana fell 4.4% to $14.56B
❓ Who is selling?
Lookonchain spotted one wallet moving about 299,800 SOL (~$26M) to Binance and OKX in 16 hours. Open interest dropped to about $5.1B on Nov 9, the lowest since Aug 19, so leverage is already thinner.
❓ What are the scenarios?
🟢 A daily close back above $89 with JitoSOL approved opens $92, then $95.5.
⚪ A range between $80 and $89 into the SEC decision.
🔴 A close below $80 to $82 opens $77, then about $72
❓ What do analysts say?
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick keeps a $250 year-end target (cut from $310) but warns SOL may lag ETH until payment volumes grow.
LiteFinance sees a 7-day range of $75.5 to $100.3
❓ What's on the calendar
Fri Nov 13: US October PPI
Sat Nov 15: SEC final deadline on the VanEck JitoSOL ETF
Wed Dec 9, FOMC decision
My read: an oversold RSI plus a binary SEC call is a setup for a sharp move either way. The chart says sellers still lead.
Which comes first for $SOL: $77 or $89? 👇
Educational content, not financial advice. DYOR.