$ETH If a 50bp hike is the tail risk, Ether is where it would bite first, and today's CPI reaction already shows the split. Over the last 12 hours on Binance, ETH/USDT fell 3.92% while BTC/USDT fell 1.73%, so Ether moved about 2.3 times as much as Bitcoin on the same print. The hourly candle around the release says the same: minus 2.48% for ETH against minus 1.78% for BTC. The flow is heavier than Ether's size suggests, too. ETH traded 441M USD on its Binance USDT pair in 12 hours, about 64% of Bitcoin's 690M USD, while its 247.9B USD market cap is only about 17% of Bitcoin's 1.47T USD. Relative to size, Ether is turning over close to four times faster. That is what forced repositioning looks like. So how deep? Posts on this topic put the odds of a 50bp move near 15%, so 25bp is still the base case. If 50bp does get priced in, the same 2.3x ratio would turn a 5% Bitcoin drop into roughly 11% for Ether. And ETH has less cushion to start with: down 15% over 30 days against 9.42% for BTC. What I'd watch: Friday's PPI, the Nov 18 FOMC minutes, and whether ETH holds today's 2,007 low. A break there on rising volume would confirm the beta trade. Numbers from cexscan's ETH and BTC summaries, read Nov 10. Not financial advice.