$BTC previous two cycles both took roughly a year to move from their highs to their lows. But those declines came after much larger expansions of around 130x and 20x. This cycle was different. We only saw about a 7x expansion, and even the top felt relatively muted. Yet somehow, the expectation now is that the decline will take almost 20% longer than previous cycles. A much smaller expansion, but an even longer correction. I’m not convinced that’s the most logical conclusion. If Q4 was always expected to be a corrective phase, was it ever realistic to expect Bitcoin to rally 50% from its lows and then hold a weekly swing level sitting just 13% below the highs? We anticipated a correction, and that's exactly what we're getting. But now that it's happening, the entire recovery is suddenly being called into question. I still think a bottom earlier this year, followed by a break above the previous weekly lower high and another correction that establishes a higher low, is a perfectly reasonable scenario. An embedded correction is simply a pullback within a broader expansion. Losing a local weekly support level doesn't automatically mean Bitcoin is heading back to its cycle lows. Of course, price can still move lower from here. But the possibility of further downside doesn't rule out the idea that the broader bottom is already behind us. You can't keep using diminishing returns to explain why each cycle's upside expansion is getting smaller while completely dismissing the possibility that the timing and structure of the downside are changing too. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#