@GoldmanSachs expects core CPI at +0.16% against +0.2% consensus
@GoldmanSachs expects core CPI at +0.16% versus the +0.2% consensus for the week of November 9 to November 15. A 1.5% decline in autos and a 0.1% decline in medical insurance offset other price pressures, pointing to potential near-term disinflation.
Producer prices and labor data look stickier. @GoldmanSachs forecasts PPI ex-food/energy at +0.2% (consensus +0.3%) and PPI ex-food/energy/trade at +0.3% (consensus +0.3%), which challenges the Fed's 2% target and reinforces a hawkish policy stance. For Nov 12 jobless claims, the forecast is 200k against a 195k consensus, while current claims at 1,709k show persistent labor market strength.
FOMC officials remain split on the path forward. Barkin backs hikes at a "gradual pace" and Logan favors a potential pause to assess data, while Cleveland and Williams emphasize a "restrictive stance" and "timely tightening."
@GoldmanSachs expects core CPI at +0.16% versus the +0.2% consensus for the week of November 9 to November 15. A 1.5% decline in autos and a 0.1% decline in medical insurance offset other price pressures, pointing to potential near-term disinflation.
Producer prices and labor data look stickier. @GoldmanSachs forecasts PPI ex-food/energy at +0.2% (consensus +0.3%) and PPI ex-food/energy/trade at +0.3% (consensus +0.3%), which challenges the Fed's 2% target and reinforces a hawkish policy stance. For Nov 12 jobless claims, the forecast is 200k against a 195k consensus, while current claims at 1,709k show persistent labor market strength.
FOMC officials remain split on the path forward. Barkin backs hikes at a "gradual pace" and Logan favors a potential pause to assess data, while Cleveland and Williams emphasize a "restrictive stance" and "timely tightening."