$XRP dropped from $1.164 to about $1.112, and roughly $28M of XRP positions were liquidated in that single hour.
1/ The move
XRP now trades around $1.09, its lowest level since mid-August.
24h change: −3.3% to −6.4% depending on the venue. CoinTurk shows −5.5%.
Range: Monday’s low was $1.0847. Sunday’s high was $1.17.
From the peak: about 19% below the Nov 4 high of $1.34.
The question now is whether the August low near $1.08 holds?
2/ What the chart looks like
RSI: daily RSI is 27.5 and still falling. That is oversold, and the MACD gap is widening.
Averages: XRP is below all of them. The 20-day EMA is $1.26, the 200-day MA $1.27–1.35 and the 50-day $1.31–1.38. I found no 100-day figure.
Resistance: $1.13 (daily pivot), $1.14–1.17 (old support and Sunday’s high), $1.20–1.22, $1.268 (200-day MA).
Support: $1.08 (Aug 20 low and daily S1), $1.05–1.06, $1.00–1.04, $0.985.
3/ Why it fell
Market-wide selling: liquidations topped $1B across crypto. XRP’s share was about $30.8M on Nov 8, nearly all of it longs.
Open interest: about $1.27B early Monday, down 3.3%.
Funding: +0.01% with 73.8% of accounts long before the crash, as of Nov 7. That crowding is what got flushed.
ETF demand: spot XRP ETFs had a week with essentially no inflows. The figures range from one −$0.53M day to about −$1M net for Oct 30–Nov 6. Cumulative inflows are about $1.81B.
4/ What the chart hides
Whales: large wallets added about 16.46M $XRP in five days (Santiment, via Ali Martinez).
Exchanges: tracked exchange wallets fell by 150.7M XRP between Oct 31 and Nov 7.
Escrow: 31.10B XRP is still locked. 700M of the Nov 1 release was re-locked until 2029, and the next window opens Dec 1.
Ripple: Brad Garlinghouse says RLUSD is “good for XRP”. RLUSD supply is about $2.6B, growing mostly on Ethereum.
Regulation: the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate in September and may now slip to 2028.
5/ Top news
XRP fell to an 11-week low during Sunday’s liquidation wave.
XRP ETFs went a week without inflows.
The fallout from the Binance hack, attributed to North Korea, still weighs on the market.
XRP remains Upbit’s most-traded coin, with about a 17% share and almost no kimchi premium.
6/ Scenarios
🟢 Bullish: reclaiming $1.13 and $1.17 while whales keep buying opens the $1.22–1.268 zone.
⚪ Base: a base forms between $1.05 and $1.13 into the ETFs’ first anniversary.
🔴 Bearish: a daily close under $1.05 targets $1.00 and then $0.985.
What analysts say:
24/7 Wall St. (Sam Daodu): a bear case of $0.99–1.15 and a bull case of $3.65 by end-2027.
Egrag Crypto: expects weakness until around Nov 17, then a possible reversal.
Celal Kucuker: sees a test of $1.10–1.05 before a turn.
My read: whales buying while ETFs sit still is a split worth tracking, but price has to stop making new lows before that split matters.
Upcoming events
Tue Nov 10, 15:30: US CPI
Fri Nov 13: spot XRP ETFs turn one year old
Tue Dec 1, 02:00: next escrow window opens
Does $XRP hold the August low at $1.08 this week? Yes or no, and why? 👇
Market overview, not investment advice. Prices at time of writing.