Next week's worst case: if the S&P 500 breaks its 200-day average (7,325), the next stop is −10% from the peak, or 7,037.
→ Friday 7,376; −5.7% from the peak, about 0.7% above the average
→ Tuesday 08:30 ET · Inflation (estimate 3.9%, core 2.8%)
→ Friday 08:30 ET · PPI (monthly estimate 0.4%)
I think the real trigger is Tuesday; if inflation touches 4%, rate-cut expectations pull back. Worst case: if core inflation exceeds 2.8% and the index closes below 7,325, selling accelerates; that's where my eye is.
#Economy #FOMC
Watching: $SPY
→ Friday 7,376; −5.7% from the peak, about 0.7% above the average
→ Tuesday 08:30 ET · Inflation (estimate 3.9%, core 2.8%)
→ Friday 08:30 ET · PPI (monthly estimate 0.4%)
I think the real trigger is Tuesday; if inflation touches 4%, rate-cut expectations pull back. Worst case: if core inflation exceeds 2.8% and the index closes below 7,325, selling accelerates; that's where my eye is.
#Economy #FOMC
Watching: $SPY
