SOL is trading near $89.89, down about 6.3–6.9% in 24h. The daily range was $88.35–96.97. It slipped back below the $89.73 trendline that held on Nov 4, and daily RSI is in oversold territory. Key question: is this an oversold bounce setup, or a break toward $85?
Technicals
Moving averages: price is below the 50-day EMA (~$103.8), the 100-day (~$100.0) and the 200-day (~$98.1).
RSI(14): about 29 (oversold), up slightly from 26 on Nov 3.
Resistance: $92.5–93 · $95–98 · $98.1–101 (200/100-day EMA and liquidation cluster) · $103.8 (50-day EMA)
Support: $88.35 (24h low) · $84.4–85.4 (weekly Supertrend) · $75–80 (pre-August range) · ~$62 (June low)
Fundamentals and on-chain
SOL ETFs:
Nov 5: −$1.18M (GSOL −$0.82M, QSOL −$0.36M).
October: a record −$143.7M.
Cumulative net inflows: $1.47B.
October network
5.01B non-vote transactions (+5.9%)
2.84M daily active addresses
DEX volume $61B (down from $78.3B in September)
Stablecoins $15.2–15.8B
Tokenized RWAs about $5.1B
Staking: about 69% of supply is staked across 659 validators.
Upgrades:
Alpenglow has been live since Oct 21, targeting ~150 ms finality.
Firedancer shipped four mainnet releases in October.
Treasury companies: Forward Industries holds 8.5M SOL, and DeFi Development holds 2.6M+.
Derivatives: about $34M of SOL long liquidations, with open interest around $5.8B. I found no funding data.
Top news
SOL fell more than 6% and lost $90 in the cross-market selloff.
ETF flows stayed slightly negative (−$1.18M).
New Firedancer leader-handover work, plus Anchor and Token-2022 releases.
Solana Breakpoint 2026 runs Nov 15–17 in London.
Forecasts
🟢 Bullish, $98–104: a 4h close above $98 reclaims the 200-day EMA and opens the 50-day EMA.
⚪ Base, $85–95: an oversold bounce that stays below $95 until US data.
🔴 Bearish, $75–80: a close below $84.4 (weekly Supertrend) opens the pre-August range.
Analyst views
TradingNews: a daily close above $98.08 targets $103.81, then $112.60. A break below $89.73 targets $85.35, and that trigger is now active.
Trader RED: any move is only a recovery until a 4h close above $98 is retested.
I found no views from named firms.
Upcoming events
Fri Nov 6, 15:30: US October jobs report.
Tue Nov 10, 15:30: US October CPI.
Nov 15–17: Solana Breakpoint 2026, London.
Nov 20: Firedancer’s boosted bug-bounty rewards end.