In short
BTC ≈ $80,400–80,600, up +2.4% to +3.4% in 24h (depends on the source). Daily range $77,950 – $81,000. Fear & Greed Index: 50 (neutral), up from 34 yesterday. The market bounced after the US elections and a short squeeze. Key question today: can price hold above $80K until Friday’s jobs report, while a December Fed hike looks very likely?
Technicals
Price is above the 200-day average (~$73,150) but still below the 50-day (~$81,900). So the trend has not turned up yet.
RSI(14) ≈ 51: neutral, with room to rise.
Resistance: $81,000–82,000 (daily high and 50-day average); $83,300–83,500 (Oct 8 close; a break opens the way higher); $85,000–85,500 (Oct 7 close, congestion zone); $86–88K (TraderAI bullish target).
Support: $80,270 (middle Bollinger band); $77,400–77,500 (Nov 4 close); $75,000–76,700 (Glassnode level and Nov 3 close); $72–73K (bearish target and 200-day average).
Fundamentals and on-chain
ETFs: Nov 4 inflow +$74.6M, the first plus after three days of outflows. FBTC +$236.7M, IBIT −$201.2M. Since Oct 30, the net outflow over 4 sessions is ≈ −$1.08B. Spot ETF assets: $102.3B.
Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5M (avg ≈ $80,846), total holdings 849,327 BTC. Strive added 124 BTC.
On-chain: per Glassnode, holders have been selling at a loss for the longest stretch since mid-August, with sales below $80K.
Derivatives: 24h liquidations $741M, of which shorts $494M; BTC alone $273M, almost all shorts. Fresh funding and open interest data could not be found.
Mining: hashrate ≈ 1,034 EH/s, difficulty 148.36T. Next adjustment ~Nov 12–13; estimates differ, from −3.2% to +1.9%.
Top news
Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Stocks, gold and crypto rose; oil fell about 8% after pledges to end the Iran war.
The Fed holds rates at 3.75–4%. Odds of a hike on Dec 9 are 71–81.5% across FedWatch readings.
The CLARITY Act failed a Senate procedural vote (49–50); it may be reintroduced after Jan 3, 2027.
Money came back to ETFs: FBTC inflows outweighed IBIT outflows.
$378M of short liquidations in one hour pushed price above $80K.
Forecasts
🟢 Bullish: $83.5K → $85–88K. Condition: daily close above $80K, break of $81–82K, and continued ETF inflows.
⚪ Base: $77.5–82K. Sideways until NFP and CPI.
🔴 Bearish: $75K, then $72–73K. Condition: close below $77.5K, strong jobs data and higher odds of a rate hike.
Analyst views:
CryptoQuant (contributor CryptoZeno): cycle indicators are in a “mild pressure” zone, so the correction may not be over.
Glassnode: if BTC holds $75K, the market may repeat the recovery seen after earlier loss-selling waves.
Grayscale and BlackRock: Democratic control may slow crypto laws but does not change the long-term trend.
Strategy (Michael Saylor) expects BTC to return to six-figure prices.
Upcoming events (Chisinau time)
Fri Nov 6, 15:30 — US jobs report (NFP) for October.
Tue Nov 10, 15:30 — US CPI inflation for October.
Wed Nov 11 — MSCI publishes its list of companies under the single-asset rule (matters for Strategy).
Thu Nov 12, ~22:30 — mining difficulty adjustment (CoinWarz estimate).
Wed Dec 9, 21:00 — Fed rate decision.