Crypto-Brief for every1! (04.11.2026)
1. Key news
BTC bounced back above $80,000 after the US midterm elections, up 3.5–3.8% on the day and briefly reaching $81,196. Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Futures dipped on early counts, then fully recovered.
Binance was hacked for $6.3B on October 29. It is the largest hack in crypto history. About $3B has been frozen, and Binance says about 98% of the stolen assets have been replaced. Withdrawals resumed on November 1.
Proof of reserves is complete for 10 tokens; proof for 44 tokens is expected in 50–60 hours.
Liquidations: about $469M in 24 hours, mostly shorts. When BTC broke $80K, $378M in shorts were liquidated within one hour.
ETF outflows continue. Over the five sessions through November 3, BTC ETFs lost $1.0B and ETH ETFs lost $508M. On November 3 alone, BTC ETFs saw −$116M and ETH ETFs −$85M.
Macro: Oil fell about 9%. Treasury yields and the dollar dropped, gold traded near $4,070, and the S&P 500 rose 1.8%.
Regulation: If the CLARITY Act isn’t passed by January 3, 2027, it must start over in the new Congress. Separately, a group including Citadel and Cboe sued the CFTC over single-stock perpetual futures.
BitMart confirmed a small hack.
Fear & Greed Index: 34 (fear), up from 26 yesterday. BTC dominance is 59.6%.
2. Trending coins
ETH: ~$2,420–2,433, up 5.4–6% and outperforming BTC. ETH/BTC rose to 0.0302.
ZEC: up 8% to ~$1,305, with the NU7 upgrade expected overnight into November 6.
HOT: up 20% after the HoloFuel network went live.
FLUID: up 10–18% after DEX V2 testing.
RUNE: up 11–13%, bouncing from oversold levels. RAY: up 10.6%.
BTC ~$80,200–80,600. Support is at $80,134 (50-day EMA) and $79,800–79,885, then $77,800 and $76,500. Resistance is at $81,196, then $84,000. The key test is tonight’s daily close (02:00) above $79,800. Funding is moderate at +0.0085%, and the long/short ratio has cooled from 2.78 to 1.61.
ETH ~$2,420. Support is at $2,350 (20-day average), then $2,230. Resistance is at $2,473, then $2,506 (50-day average). A daily close above $2,506 would break the downtrend that began in early October.
4. Token unlocks
Nov 5: the second part of the ENA unlock (134M tokens across Nov 2 and 5, 1%, ~$25M), plus KTA.
Nov 6: HYPE unlocks up to 9.92M tokens (~4% of supply, headline value up to ~$870M). Only about $16M is confirmed to enter circulation so far. QUAI and RESOLV also unlock.
Nov 7: STABLE unlocks 4.9%, ~$23M. Nov 8: AVAX unlocks 0.3%, ~$14M.
5. Upcoming events
Tonight, 02:00: BTC daily close against $79,800.
Thu, Nov 5, 14:00: Bank of England decision, with a hike to 4% expected.
Overnight into Nov 6, ~03:00–05:00: Zcash NU7 activation.
Fri, Nov 6, 15:30: US nonfarm payrolls.
~Nov 6–7: Binance proof of reserves for 44 tokens.
6. Bullish and bearish signals.
Bullish
ETH: $2,420, +5.4%. Open interest rose 4.2% alongside price, which points to new money coming in rather than just short covering. Funding is positive. A close above $2,506 would confirm the move; a drop below $2,350 would cancel it. BTC: $80,400, +3.6%. The break of $80K came with a short squeeze, and call options dominate trading. Holding above $81,200 would confirm the move; a daily close below $79,800 would cancel it.
NEAR: $4.15, +8%. A governance vote is under way to cut issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%. NEAR ETFs saw a −$3.6M outflow, though, so the picture is mixed.
TIA: $0.466, +7%. I found no specific reason for the move.
Bearish
TRUMP: $1.43, −11% to −17%. Politically linked tokens are selling off after the Democrats’ win.
WLFI: $0.049, −3.4%, for the same political reason.
HYPE: $85.45, −1.9%, with an unlock of up to 9.92M tokens on November 6.
BTC and ETH: $1.5B has left ETFs over five sessions. If the outflows continue, today’s bounce may not hold.
8. On watch.
BNB: Binance is still recovering from the hack and verifying reserves (see section 1). BNB is around $700 on tickers, versus about $754 on October 28.
ENA: up 8.3% to $0.185, with an unlock on November 5.
HYPE: unlock on November 6 (see section 4). HYPE ETFs took in +$0.6M, one of the few positive ETF readings.
NEAR: governance vote on cutting issuance (HSP-029). The news dates from October 20.
AVAX: unlock on November 8, ~$14M. SUI / XRP: scheduled unlocks on November 1: about $11.8M for SUI, and 1B XRP released from escrow per Ripple’s schedule.
WLFI: under pressure after the elections.
Big moves (±7% or more): NEAR +8%, ENA +8.3%, TIA +7%. ETH is close to the threshold at +5–6%.