#Midterms ARE TOMORROW.
Here is the stat almost nobody brings up.
The #S&P500 has never been lower 12 months after a midterm election. Not once in 19 tries going back to 1950. Wars, oil shocks, recessions, it didn't matter.
Average gain over those 12 months is about 15%. Measured by calendar year instead, the year after a midterm has averaged a 20.9% total return.
Baird ran it from the midterm year's actual low and got 32%.
So why is everyone miserable right now?
Because the Shiller CAPE is at its second highest reading in history. The only time it was higher was late 1999. The Buffett indicator sits around 235%, also near a record.
That is the real bear case and it has nothing to do with who wins tomorrow.
Here is the stat almost nobody brings up.
The #S&P500 has never been lower 12 months after a midterm election. Not once in 19 tries going back to 1950. Wars, oil shocks, recessions, it didn't matter.
Average gain over those 12 months is about 15%. Measured by calendar year instead, the year after a midterm has averaged a 20.9% total return.
Baird ran it from the midterm year's actual low and got 32%.
So why is everyone miserable right now?
Because the Shiller CAPE is at its second highest reading in history. The only time it was higher was late 1999. The Buffett indicator sits around 235%, also near a record.
That is the real bear case and it has nothing to do with who wins tomorrow.