Bitwise just bumped their 10-year $BTC target to $1.6M by 2036 (up from $1.3M). Same model, bigger addressable markets.
Key drivers:
• Store of value market now projected at $110T (was $91T)
• Institutional investment market $303T (was $216T)
• 34.3% CAGR over next decade
What changed their mind? Despite $BTC dumping 53% from $125k to $59k, the drawdown was way smaller than previous 80%+ bear cycles. That's maturation.
Their thesis:
• Inflation + debt spirals = more demand for scarce assets
• Institutions kept buying through the dump
• $BTC now 5%+ of store of value market (was <1% decade ago)
• Wells Fargo, Merrill giving access
• Central banks circling
Risks still exist: regulatory chaos, quantum threats, tech disruption. But if you believe the macro setup (currency debasement, institutional FOMO, 21M hard cap), this isn't hopium—it's math on expanding TAMs.
TLDR: Bitwise sees $BTC eating a bigger pie, not just a bigger slice. $1.6M is the model output if institutions keep stacking and fiat keeps melting.
Key drivers:
• Store of value market now projected at $110T (was $91T)
• Institutional investment market $303T (was $216T)
• 34.3% CAGR over next decade
What changed their mind? Despite $BTC dumping 53% from $125k to $59k, the drawdown was way smaller than previous 80%+ bear cycles. That's maturation.
Their thesis:
• Inflation + debt spirals = more demand for scarce assets
• Institutions kept buying through the dump
• $BTC now 5%+ of store of value market (was <1% decade ago)
• Wells Fargo, Merrill giving access
• Central banks circling
Risks still exist: regulatory chaos, quantum threats, tech disruption. But if you believe the macro setup (currency debasement, institutional FOMO, 21M hard cap), this isn't hopium—it's math on expanding TAMs.
TLDR: Bitwise sees $BTC eating a bigger pie, not just a bigger slice. $1.6M is the model output if institutions keep stacking and fiat keeps melting.