Market pricing on October 26 put the probability of a rae hold roughly 90-94% with a smaller chance of 25 basis point increase. A rate cut is not meaningful part of the current outlook.

The prevailing scenario is a pause in following by another possible hike in December. A Reuters pull found that all 100 economists serveyed the fed to raise rates again in December, reflecting persistent inflation and resilient economic activity.

This leaves markets facing a key distinction. The fed can hold rates steady while maintaining a hawkish stance.
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