يستقر $ETH عند متوسط تكلفة شرائه البالغ $2,310 قبيل قرار الاحتياطي الفيدرالي: أمر شراء بين $2,305 و$2,330، والخروج إذا هبط دون $2,270

B-Sol · 2026-10-28T00:14:23.000Z

$ETH يبلغ السعر نحو $2,346 عند 07:11 بتوقيت الهند الصينية في 28 أكتوبر على منصة Binance الفورية (+0.8% خلال 24 ساعة، وحجم تداول فوري يقارب $483M). خلال أربع جلسات، اختبر مستوى $2,300 ثلاث مرات، وكان كل قاع أعلى قليلًا من سابقه: $2,282 (24 أكتوبر)، و$2,293 (26 أكتوبر)، و$2,297 (27 أكتوبر). وبما أن قرار الاحتياطي الفيدرالي يصدر الليلة، فإن خطتي هي وضع أمر شراء محدد عند هذا الدعم، لا ملاحقة السعر. 🔥 ما الذي يحركه • قرار اللجنة الفيدرالية للسوق المفتوحة يوم الأربعاء 28 أكتوبر، الساعة 2 مساءً بتوقيت شرق الولايات المتحدة (01:00 صباح الخميس بتوقيت الهند الصينية)، والمؤتمر الصحفي الساعة 2:30 مساءً بتوقيت شرق الولايات المتحدة. تُسعّر الأسواق احتمال تثبيت الفائدة عند 3.75–4.00% بنحو 90%، ويتوقع معظم الاقتصاديين رفعها في ديسمبر. لذا، فإن نبرة المؤتمر الصحفي أهم من القرار نفسه.

$ETH is ~$2,346 at 07:11 ICT Oct 28 on Binance spot (+0.8% 24h, ~$483M spot volume). Over four sessions it tested $2,300 three times and each low was a bit higher than the last: $2,282 (Oct 24), $2,293 (Oct 26), $2,297 (Oct 27). With the Fed deciding tonight, my plan is a limit bid on that floor, not a chase.
🔥 What's moving it
• FOMC decision Wed Oct 28, 2pm ET (01:00 ICT Thu), press conference 2:30pm ET. A hold at 3.75–4.00% is ~90% priced, and economists mostly expect a hike in December. So the press conference tone matters more than the decision.
• Thu Oct 29, 8:30am ET (19:30 ICT): September Core PCE, consensus 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. A hot print makes a December hike look certain.
• ETF flows are the real headwind. US spot ETH ETFs lost −$1.26B in October through Oct 26 (SoSoValue), then another −$89M on Oct 27. The record month is −$1.42B (Nov 2025). Four straight weeks of outflows, while BTC ETFs took in money on Oct 27.
• Cost basis: ETH's on-chain realized price is ~$2,310, and the 1K–10K ETH wallet cohort averages ~$2,328. Both sit right on the 1D EMA200.
📊 Daily (1D)
ETH topped at $2,527 on Oct 21 and is −7% from there, about −12.6% for October. Price is under the 1D EMA20 (~$2,424) and EMA50 (~$2,450) and just under the EMA100 (~$2,362). The 1D EMA200 (~$2,308) has held on every daily close since Oct 24.
Wilder RSI(14) ~37: weak, but not oversold.
⏱️ 4H
The 4H downtrend from Oct 21 slowed at $2,282–2,300. On Oct 27 the 19:00 ICT candle closed back above the 4H EMA20 (~$2,342), and 4H RSI jumped from ~39 to ~49 (it bottomed near 27 on Oct 24). The 4H EMA50 (~$2,372) sits just above as the first test.
This is a bounce attempt off a support cluster. The trend has not flipped yet.
🎯 Bull / bear levels
• Bid: $2,305–2,330 (realized price + 1D EMA200)
• TP1: $2,405–2,420 (Oct 23 highs, ~1.6–1.9R from $2,317)
• TP2: $2,470–2,482 (Oct 22 high, ~2.8–3.0R)
• Out: 4H close below $2,270 (stop $2,262, risk ~2.4%)
• Bull trigger: a 4H close above $2,375 (4H EMA50 + 1D EMA100) opens TP1
• Bear case: a 4H close under $2,270 breaks both the higher lows and cost basis. Next shelf: $2,220–2,255 (Aug 19–20 lows)
💭 My take
The R:R from the cost-basis floor is decent and sellers are struggling to push under $2,300. What I don't like: ETF redemptions are close to a record month, ETH is weaker than BTC, and a hawkish Fed could flush the lows. Chasing at $2,346 gives under 1R to TP1. So I keep the size small through 01:00 ICT, bid the floor, and I'm out on a 4H close under $2,270.
Would you bid $ETH at $2,310 before the Fed, or wait for a 4H close above $2,375? 👇
NFA. DYOR.