$PENGU is ~$0.00746 at 18:54 ICT Oct 27 on Binance spot (−1.2% 24h). It has printed three daily lows in a row at $0.0073–0.0074 (Oct 25, 26, 27) and none of them closed below. My plan is a small bid at that floor with a tight 4H-close stop.

🔥 What's moving it

• Oct 27–30: the Pudgy Penguins × Line Friends minini collection starts its Korea retail rollout (announced Oct 21; Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo stores).

• Oct 25: Walmart picked the Pudgy Penguins Holiday Plush Bouquet ($49.99) for its Holiday Gift Guide as a "Top Toy", mailed to 40M+ homes.

• The brand side keeps growing, but price has not followed: PENGU is −33% from the Sep 23 high ($0.01116) and still in CoinGecko's trending list today.

• Supply: the next monthly Team/Company unlock is Nov 17, ~723M PENGU (~$5.4M at today's price). That is more than Binance's whole 24h spot volume (~$3.2M).

📊 Daily (1D)

PENGU rejected at $0.00840 on Oct 21 and has bled lower since. Price is below the 1D EMA20 (~$0.00789), EMA50 (~$0.00809) and EMA200 (~$0.00785), so the trend is still down.

The bright side: three lows at $0.0073–0.0074 with shrinking volume. Wilder RSI(14) ~40, weak but not washed out.

⏱️ 4H

The 4H candles are tight around $0.00740–0.00755, right on the floor. The 4H EMA20 (~$0.00755) keeps capping the bounces, and the EMA50 sits at ~$0.00766.

Wilder RSI(14) ~44, flat. A 4H close back above $0.00785 (Oct 24 high + 4H EMA100) is the first real sign that buyers are in control.

🎯 Bull / bear levels

• Bid: $0.00730–0.00740 (Oct 25–27 lows)

• TP1: $0.00775–0.00785 (Oct 24 high + 4H EMA100, ~2.0–2.5R from $0.00735)

• TP2: $0.00815–0.00825 (Oct 23 high $0.008205, ~4.0–4.5R)

• Out: 4H close below $0.00718 (stop $0.00715, risk ~2.7%)

• Bull trigger: 4H close above $0.00785

• Bear case: losing $0.00718 opens $0.00667–0.00706 (Sep 15 + Oct 18 lows)

💭 My take

A triple test with a tight stop is a clean risk/reward, and the brand news flow is steady. But the triple test can also just be a slow bleed. The trend is down, volume is the lowest in weeks, and the Nov 17 unlock is three weeks out. FOMC lands early Oct 29 ICT too. So it's a small bid, no chasing: from ~$0.00746 the trade is only ~1R to TP1. If $0.00718 breaks on a 4H close, I'm out with no averaging down.

Does the $0.0073 floor hold a 4th time, or do we see $0.0070 first? 👇

NFA. DYOR.