Bitcoin's daily candles look like noise, but Fidelity analyst Jurrien Timmer says a new 4-year $BTC bull market is underway based on power law patterns most people never bother to check.
The real pain is watching your portfolio bleed because you either FOMO'd the last top or sat on the sidelines waiting for confirmation that never felt certain. Cycles like this have wrecked plenty of traders who mistimed the start.
Power laws describe how $BTC price has grown with time in a predictable curve rather than wild exponential spikes. Timmer notes this has aligned with the 4-year halving rhythm, producing those massive runs that topped out around 2013, 2017 and 2021. If the model continues, we might be looking at the early stage of the next expansion.
But models fail. A power law can snap if institutional flows dry up or if a black swan event hits the market. We've seen 80% drawdowns even in supposed bull phases before, and $ETH or $SOL often diverge in ways that drag sentiment down too. Getting this wrong means holding bags through another long winter.
Anyone else seeing this pattern hold up in the current setup?
#Bitcoin #CryptoCycles #MarketRisks
The real pain is watching your portfolio bleed because you either FOMO'd the last top or sat on the sidelines waiting for confirmation that never felt certain. Cycles like this have wrecked plenty of traders who mistimed the start.
Power laws describe how $BTC price has grown with time in a predictable curve rather than wild exponential spikes. Timmer notes this has aligned with the 4-year halving rhythm, producing those massive runs that topped out around 2013, 2017 and 2021. If the model continues, we might be looking at the early stage of the next expansion.
But models fail. A power law can snap if institutional flows dry up or if a black swan event hits the market. We've seen 80% drawdowns even in supposed bull phases before, and $ETH or $SOL often diverge in ways that drag sentiment down too. Getting this wrong means holding bags through another long winter.
Anyone else seeing this pattern hold up in the current setup?
#Bitcoin #CryptoCycles #MarketRisks