$SOL Tests $106.5 Resistance: Breakout or Rejection? | $5.6M in Longs Liquidated in 24h

TL;DR

• Bias: Bearish (4H), price above 200-day MA

• Support 103.46 / 102.43 | Resistance 106.49 / 108.65

• Plan: no trade yet, wait for 103.46 or 106.49

📈 Chart

SOL 104.96 (-10.5% / 10D). Price below MA20 104.97, below MA50 107.67. RSI 46 (neutral). Volume 0.8x avg.

Bull case: 4H close above 106.49 → 108.65

Bear case: 4H close below 103.46 → 102.43

🧮 Derivatives

Funding +0.0023% (neutral) · OI $1.85B (-4.5% 24h)

Liq 24h: longs $5.6M vs shorts $1.8M → longs were flushed

Top traders L/S 2.30 vs retail 2.47 → top traders and retail are positioned similarly

Fear & Greed 55 (Greed) · BTC 1D bullish

🎯 How to execute

• Long idea only near 103.46 with a 4H candle holding it

• Short idea only near 106.49 with a 4H candle rejecting it

❌ A 4H close beyond 102.43 / 108.65 changes the picture

🔬 How this research was built

Old 60 4H candles (07 Oct to 17 Oct) + 200D structure → trend, RSI, ATR, swing levels.

Model: trained on 1.8M hourly samples (114 coins), tested on 539K unseen → 52.4% hit-rate (55% high-confidence). Context only, not a trigger.

New data (17 Oct 2026 09:49 UTC): live price, funding, OI, 24h liquidations (own real-time recorder), top traders vs retail, Fear & Greed.

Rules: levels = swing highs/lows; SL 0.75 ATR beyond; trade only if R:R ≥ 1.5.

Not Financial Advice | DYOR

#SOL #CryptoAnalysis #BinanceSquare #SOLUSDT

RESEARCH BY SPRAWWIN