$ANIME is at ~$0.00308 on Binance at 18:58 ICT on Oct 16, up ~10.4% on the day — but that number hides the real move. Last night one 1H candle ran $0.00289 → $0.003913 (+35%) and closed back at $0.002919. Here is how I'm playing what's left.

🔥 Catalyst: Azuki week + one wild candle

• Oct 13: Azuki TCG 1st Anniversary Collection preorders opened (official Azuki TCG account).

• Oct 14: Azuki TCG "Fractured Domains" (AZK-02) official trailer — set releases Nov 20, 2026 (official Azuki TCG account).

• Oct 15, 16:00 UTC (23:00 ICT): "AZUKI Chapter 2: Pact just dropped" (official AZUKI manga account). The $0.003913 wick printed in that exact 1H candle. Timing match, not a confirmed cause — no ANIME-specific announcement came with it.

• Oct 23: next token unlock, 133.3M ANIME (~1.3% of supply, ~1.6% of mcap), ~50% to insiders (public unlock schedule). The last three monthly unlocks saw −5.9% to −13.6% drawdowns within a week.

• Size check: Oct 15 spot volume ran ~32x its 10-day average. Binance spot 24h ~$9.1M. Perp OI is small (~278M ANIME, ~$0.86M) and funding is negative (−0.03% last settle). A spike in thin books, not a trend yet.

📊 Daily (1D)

September topped near $0.00357 (Sep 22–27 highs $0.003557–0.003572), then a slow bleed: Oct 7–8 lost $0.0031, Oct 13–14 dipped to $0.00288–0.00289. Oct 15 swept $0.002709, wicked to $0.003913, and closed $0.003257. Today is red so far ($0.003259 → ~$0.00309).

Price sits inside the daily EMA cluster: EMA50 ~$0.003098, EMA100 ~$0.003100, EMA20 ~$0.003172. Wilder RSI(14) 47 (53 on the last closed bar). Neutral — the spike didn't change the daily trend, it just reset it to the middle.

⏱️ 4H

The 23:00 4H bar closed $0.003412. Since then: lower highs ($0.00353 → $0.003418 → $0.003225) and a low of $0.003021 at 15:00 today. Price ~$0.00309, just above 4H EMA20 ~$0.003046, under EMA50 ~$0.003093. Wilder RSI(14) 52 — cooled off from the spike, not oversold.

Fib of $0.003913 → $0.003021: 0.382 = $0.003362, 0.5 = $0.003467, 0.618 = $0.003572. TP1 and TP2 sit on those, not on the wick.

🟢 Bull case

Bids hold $0.00296–0.00302 (today's low + the Oct 13–14 4H lows) and a 4H candle closes back above $0.003418. That opens $0.00353–0.00357 (Oct 16 03:00 4H high, Sep highs, fib 0.618). Azuki newsflow keeps attention on it into the Nov 20 TCG date.

🔴 Bear case

A 4H close below $0.00270 (under the Oct 15 sweep low $0.002709) means the whole spike round-tripped. Then late-August lows $0.00254–0.00260 are in play — with the Oct 23 unlock right after.

🧠 My take

I'm not chasing a +35% wick in a ~$3M-a-day book. I'd bid $0.00296–0.00302, add at the pre-spike base $0.00284–0.00290, and cut on a 4H close under $0.00270.

Entry $0.00299, risk ~9.7% to $0.00270 — wide, so size small. That's ~1.2–1.5R to TP1 ($0.00333–0.00342) and ~1.9–2.0R to TP2 ($0.00353–0.00357). With the add filled (avg ~$0.00293), it's ~1.7R to TP1 low and ~2.6R to TP2 low.

Honest risk: the news is about Azuki IP, not the token. Unlock on Oct 23. A 4H close decides the stop, not a wick. If $0.00296 breaks clean, I wait for the base, I don't average blind.

Do you bid $0.00296–0.00302, or wait for a 4H close above $0.003418? 👇

NFA, DYOR. Data: exchange spot + perp candles, official Azuki posts (Oct 13–15), public unlock schedule.