US equities looking stretched af right now
S&P 500 earnings yield vs 10Y Treasury spread just hit -1.5% — worst since 2009
• Spread compressed 4.4% since 2022
• Equity risk premium negative for 3rd year straight
• You're taking MORE risk in stocks but getting PAID LESS than bonds
Historically this screams extreme risk appetite and overvaluation
If you're long US equities here, at least hedge. This setup rarely ends well
S&P 500 earnings yield vs 10Y Treasury spread just hit -1.5% — worst since 2009
• Spread compressed 4.4% since 2022
• Equity risk premium negative for 3rd year straight
• You're taking MORE risk in stocks but getting PAID LESS than bonds
Historically this screams extreme risk appetite and overvaluation
If you're long US equities here, at least hedge. This setup rarely ends well