Gold is currently worth around $4,195 after recovering from a recent low near $3,950, and analyst Fthegurus believes the market may now be very close to forming a major bottom.
His argument is based on historical drawdowns.
He points out that gold has gone through six major corrections since 1990, with most bull-market pullbacks falling somewhere between 23% and 30%.
The current correction already fits inside that range.
Gold is roughly 25% below its all-time high, and the recent move toward $3,950 represented a decline of about 30% from the peak.
That is why the analyst thinks calls for $3,500 or even $3,100 may be too pessimistic.
Gold Is Already in a Historical Correction Zone
The gold chart shows how severe the current decline has already been.
Gold peaked above $5,500 earlier in the year before entering a long sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The market then dropped toward the $3,950-$4,000 area before bouncing back toward $4,200.
Fthegurus argues that this is important because previous gold bull markets often found their bottom after declines of roughly 23%-30%.
The obvious exception was the post-2011 cycle, when gold fell around 45% from its peak.
But that move developed into a multi-year bear market.
His view is that the current environment still looks more like a correction inside a broader bull cycle than the beginning of another 2011-style collapse.
Source: X/@fthegurus
The first important support remains around $4,000.
That area has already attracted buyers multiple times and sits close to the recent $3,950 low.
If gold continues defending that zone, the recovery could extend toward $4,250-$4,300 first.
Above that, $4,400 becomes the next major resistance area.
The chart still has work to do, though.
Gold remains below several recent lower highs, which means the broader trend has not fully turned bullish yet.
A sustained move above roughly $4,400 would improve the structure significantly and increase the chances that the bottom is already in.
If $3,950 fails, however, the bullish bottoming thesis would weaken and the market could start testing lower levels again.R
Read also: If You Invested $10,000 in Bitcoin and Gold When the US-Iran War Started: Here Are the Results
Our Take on the Gold Price Prediction
Fthegurus’ historical argument is reasonable.
A 25%-30% decline is already big for gold, especially if the larger secular bull case remains intact.
That does not guarantee the exact bottom has already been printed.
Historical averages are useful, but markets do not have to stop at the average.
The strongest part of the argument is that gold is no longer trading near euphoric highs. A large portion of the correction has already happened.
From here, the $3,950-$4,000 area becomes the level that can either validate or invalidate the bottoming case.
If buyers continue defending it and gold reclaims $4,300-$4,400, the recent low could start looking much more important in hindsight.
If that support breaks decisively, the market would have to reassess whether this is still a normal bull-market correction or something deeper.
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The post “Bottom in Gold Is Close!” Analyst Pushes Back on Bearish Gold Price Predictions appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.