📅 WEEKLY MACRO AND RISK CALENDAR | OCTOBER 12–16, 2026
🎯 Main Theme of the Week
With the Fed having raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75–4.00%, the week opens with U.S. September inflation (CPI), followed by retail sales and PPI the very next day. In other words, price pressures and the resilience of demand will be tested within the same 24-hour period. A series of central bank officials' speeches and a conversation featuring the Fed Chair on Friday morning will add to the mix. The rate-hike trajectory is the main focus of the week.
🗓 Day-by-Day Economic Calendar
Monday, October 12
🇺🇸 Columbus Day holiday: U.S. Treasury markets are closed, and the Fed's statistical releases scheduled for today have been moved to Tuesday.
🇨🇦 Canadian Thanksgiving holiday
No major economic data releases are scheduled; liquidity may be thin.
Tuesday, October 13
🇦🇺 RBA September meeting minutes
🇩🇪 Germany CPI (September, final) | 09:00
🇺🇸 Fed Board member speech (AI theme, New Delhi) | 10:45
🇺🇸 Earnings season begins with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo
🇪🇺 ECB President's speech | Wednesday, 05:10
Wednesday, October 14
🇨🇳 China CPI (September) | 04:30
🇬🇧 BoE Governor's speech | 08:30
🇨🇦 BoC Governor's speech | 09:05
🇪🇺 ECB President's speech | 11:30
🇺🇸 CPI (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Fed Beige Book (October) | 21:00
🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley and Bank of America earnings
Thursday, October 15
🇦🇺 Employment data (September) | 03:30
🇨🇭 SNB Chair's speech | 07:30
🇬🇧 GDP (August) | 09:00
🇬🇧 BoE Governor's speech | 10:30 and Friday, 05:00
🇪🇺 Eurozone industrial production (August) | 12:00
🇺🇸 PPI (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Retail sales (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Weekly jobless claims | 15:30
🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Fed Chair's conversation with the IMF Managing Director (Bangkok) | Friday, 06:30
Friday, October 16
🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (September, final) | 12:00
🇺🇸 Import and export prices (September) | 15:30
🇺🇸 Industrial production and capacity utilization (September) | 16:15
⚠️ Crypto Market Impact and Key Weekly Risk Points
The single biggest risk of the week is U.S. CPI on Wednesday at 15:30. With the rate-hiking cycle still underway, a headline or core inflation reading above expectations could strengthen pricing for further hikes, push the dollar and yields higher, and trigger sharp selling in Bitcoin and altcoins. A softer inflation picture would ease risk appetite concerns; however, PPI and retail sales due the following day could change the direction again, meaning the sustainability of Wednesday's reaction will be tested on Thursday at 15:30.
Thursday at 15:30 brings PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Index in a single window. A combination of strong spending and elevated producer prices would reinforce the Fed's tightening tone. Sudden wicks and liquidation waves are common in crypto futures around these releases, so leveraged positions require extra caution as this window approaches.
Central bank communication will be intense this week. Multiple speeches by the ECB and BoE presidents, appearances by the BoC and SNB governors, and the Fed Chair's Friday morning conversation could deliver new signals about the interest-rate path. Since the Fed Chair's conversation is scheduled for Friday at 06:30 Turkey time, it could affect the opening of the Asian session toward the end of the week. The Beige Book at 21:00 on Wednesday will provide a second layer of commentary following CPI.
The closure of U.S. Treasury markets on Monday means the week begins with thin liquidity. Since crypto trades 24/7, price movements that develop over the weekend could be exaggerated during this period. Bank earnings beginning on Tuesday will also influence risk appetite in equities, with indirect effects on crypto.
Weekly summary: Monday is quiet; Wednesday brings the highest volatility with CPI; a second wave arrives Thursday at 15:30; Friday opens with the Fed Chair's conversation and closes in the afternoon with industrial production data.