This feels more like wishful thinking on $BTC .

The new-cycle-low thesis was built around the weekly downtrend: lower highs followed by lower lows.

But that structure has now been challenged. BTC broke above the swing that was keeping the bearish structure intact.

Historically, we haven’t seen the weekly lower-high structure get invalidated and then simply continue into fresh cycle lows.

That doesn’t guarantee a reversal, but the bearish thesis needs to account for the structural shift.