Markets are starting the week in risk-on mode, but there is an important contradiction: Fed expectations are turning more dovish, while oil prices and Treasury yields remain elevated. ₿ #Bitcoin is trading around $86–87K, back above the $86K level. A weaker dollar and declining expectations for further Fed tightening are supporting crypto. The next key area to watch is the recent local highs around $87K. 🇺🇸 US Macro: Following weaker labor market data, expectations for another Fed rate hike have dropped significantly. However, the US 10Y yield remains above 5% — still one of the biggest macro headwinds for risk assets. ISM Services and upcoming Fed signals are the next key catalysts. 📈 Stocks: Asian markets are mostly higher, while US equity futures are also slightly positive. Markets are once again trying to price in the idea that the Fed may be done tightening. 🛢 Oil remains a risk. Brent is holding above $100. OPEC+ kept its November production targets unchanged, while a geopolitical premium remains after Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities. So far, there is no confirmation of significant damage. 🌏 Geopolitics: US–China relations are back in focus. Taiwan’s foreign minister visiting Arizona could trigger a response from Beijing. Any further escalation around Taiwan could have implications for semiconductors and global supply chains. 🤖 AI: The discussion is gradually shifting from “who can build the best AI?” to regulation and returns on massive AI investment. With the US 10Y above 5%, markets increasingly need to see real cash flow generated by hundreds of billions of dollars in AI capex. What matters now: $BTC > $86K + weaker USD + lower probability of further Fed tightening = a constructive combination. But as long as Treasury yields remain above 5% and Brent stays above $100, this is not yet a completely comfortable risk-on environment. #BTC Price Analysis#