Key takeaways

  • 81.1% of 408 new Gate listings since Jan 2025 were below their listing-day close at day 90. Median: -55.5%. (TDMM, data to 2 Oct 2026.)

  • Volume fell to 16.4% of listing day by day 30 and 8.8% by day 90.

  • The median token set its 90-day high on day 3. 59.1% peaked in week one.

  • Above listing price at day 7? 35.8% were still above at day 90. Below it? 10.6%.

  • Launched under $100M FDV: 31.5% held listing price at day 90. Launched at $1B+: 10.0%.

Nine numbers behind post-TGE failure. Sources as dated in the panel.

Not just a bad market. Fewer than one in five new tokens beat Bitcoin over 90 days. Memento Research found 84.7% of 118 TGEs in 2025 below launch valuation, and CryptoRank 93% of 113 tokens that reached $100M market cap.

Seven reasons launches fail after TGE

  • Priced for perfection: high FDV, low float

  • Unlocks the market can see and sells early (Keyrock: 90% of 16,000+ unlocks negative)

  • Airdrop holders who sell (Keyrock: 8 of 62 airdrops positive after 90 days)

  • Liquidity planned for listing day only

  • The wrong market maker deal (MOVE: 66M tokens sold the day after listing)

  • Perpetuals before spot depth

  • Silence on unlocks, market maker and treasury

Liquidity today. On 3 Oct 2026, 76.8% of these tokens had under $10k within 2% on their thinner side. A $10k order moves them more than 2%.

What works: realistic launch FDV, staggered and published unlocks, distribution tied to real use, depth sized for 90 days, a disclosable market maker contract with spread, depth and uptime per venue, and CEX books and DEX pools on one price.

TDMM runs CEX and DEX market making for token launches across 100+ integrations and 200+ markets, active since 2015. We publish this, so weigh that. No price or volume promises.

Full study, method and sources: tdmm.io/insights/blog/why-token-launches-fail-after-tge

#TokenLaunch #TGE #MarketMaking #CryptoLiquidity #Altcoins

Not investment, legal or tax advice. TDMM provides the services discussed. Data covers currently listed Gate pairs and excludes delisted tokens. Crypto is volatile and you can lose your entire position.