أحصيت كل ميم على سولانا تخرّجت في يناير. واحد منها حقق 100 ضعف

ivanlabrie · 2026-09-25T22:06:42.000Z

طُرح عليّ سؤال بسيط هذا الأسبوع: إذا كانت ميمٌ على سولانا قد وصلت بالفعل إلى نحو 700 ألف دولار من القيمة السوقية، فما احتمالية أن تحقق 100 ضعف من هناك؟ لدى الجميع في عالم الميمز قصة عن الرمز الذي فعل ذلك، لكنني لم أجد أحدًا يقدّم معدل الأساس، لذا ذهبت وعدّدت. العينة أخذت كل رمزٍ تخرّج من Pump.fun في يناير 2026، وبلغ عددها 14,496. ويعني التخرّج أنها ملأت منحنى السيولة (حوالي 69 ألف دولار من القيمة السوقية) وانتقلت إلى تجمع تداول حقيقي، وهو ما لم ينجح سوى حوالي 1 من كل 100 إطلاق آنذاك. لقد استخرجتها من بيانات السلسلة (on-chain) وليس من موقع قوائم، لذلك توجد أيضًا الرموز الميتة ضمنها، وهذا مهم جدًا هنا. كان يناير شهرًا حارًا، حوالي 468 متخرّجًا في اليوم.

I got asked a simple question this week: if a Solana meme has already made it to around $700k market cap, what are the odds it goes 100x from there? Everyone in memes has a story about the one that did, but I couldn't find anyone with the base rate, so I went and counted.
The sample
I took every token that graduated from Pump.fun in January 2026, 14,496 of them. Graduating means it filled the bonding curve (around $69k market cap) and moved to a real pool, which only about 1 in 100 launches managed back then. I pulled them from on-chain data rather than a listing site, so the dead ones are in there too, and that matters a lot here. January was a hot month, about 468 graduates a day.
How many are still around
Three weeks after launch, 85 of the 14,496 were above $100k and 12 were above $1M. Eight months later it's 26 above $100k and 7 above $1M. Only 14 still trade more than $10k a day, and just 413 (2.8%) have a trading pair listed anywhere at all. So about 99.8% of tokens that already beat the graduation odds are worth less than $100k today.
The ones that reached $700k
171 of the January graduates touched $700k at some point, about 1.2%. This is how many went on to each multiple at their peak:
2x: 97
5x: 34
10x: 10
20x: 7
50x: 2
100x: 1
Starting the count at $1M or $1.3M barely changes it, the hit rate stays roughly flat across that band, so the hard part is getting to $700k in the first place.
Why the real odds are a bit worse
My price history only kept full records for tokens that still had some liquidity three weeks in, so the fastest rugs fell out of the count. Holder counts stay put after a token dies, which let me estimate the missing ones: roughly 25 to 45 more tokens touched $700k and then died, all of them failures. That puts the real count near 195 to 215, and the 100x rate at about 1 in 200 (0.5%).
Big caveat though, that's one token out of about 200. With a single success the honest range runs from about 0.01% to 3%, so I'd read it as an order of magnitude and nothing more precise. 10x is on firmer ground at about 1 in 20. Counted per launch instead, it's roughly 1 in 1.3 million, which in a hot month works out to about one 100x across the whole platform.
The one that did it
The single 100x was PENGUIN. It passed $700k on 23 January, peaked near $136M two days later, and it's around $0.77M today, so it went 100x and then gave back about 99% of it. The next best were Buttcoin, which peaked at $44M and sits around $15M now, and PsyopAnime, which peaked at $24M.
What I take from it
The tail is real, but it plays out in days and doesn't wait for anyone. Anyone who caught PENGUIN and held out for a round number gave nearly all of it back. In my own backtests on memes the exit rule decided the results far more than the entry did, and this looks like the same lesson at the extreme.
January's graduation rate was also about 4x June's, per the published figures. In a slower market the odds per token might hold up, but there are fewer tickets being drawn each month. The memes that make it to a big exchange listing, like $PNUT, $GOAT or $MOODENG, are the survivors of a pile like this one.
#Solana #Memecoins #PumpFun #Crypto