4-year cycle check on $BTC:
Current: $84,219
4Y ago (scaled): $93,613
8Y ago (scaled): $589,313
We're running 10% behind the 2021 cycle at this stage. Not catastrophic, but liquidity's clearly tighter this time. If you're expecting a clean 4Y repeat, manage expectations.
The 8Y comp is irrelevant now — different macro, different liquidity environment, different institutional footprint.
Watch $90k as the real test. Break it with volume or we're ranging into Q2.
Current: $84,219
4Y ago (scaled): $93,613
8Y ago (scaled): $589,313
We're running 10% behind the 2021 cycle at this stage. Not catastrophic, but liquidity's clearly tighter this time. If you're expecting a clean 4Y repeat, manage expectations.
The 8Y comp is irrelevant now — different macro, different liquidity environment, different institutional footprint.
Watch $90k as the real test. Break it with volume or we're ranging into Q2.
