Too many people asking me the same thing, so here's the final word:
This is NOT a bull market.
Probability we're at the start of a bull run? 5%. That's it.
A bear market has two phases: downtrend (panic capitulation in price) and consolidation (slow grind in time). Both are designed to shake you out.
Right now? 95% chance we're still in that process.
If this were actually the bull market starting, then the entire drop from Oct 2024 highs to $57k would just be a mid-cycle correction. That would imply a cycle top I can't even fathom. And the liquidity simply isn't there to support that.
So why are all the KOLs screaming "bull market is here"?
Because they're fake traders. Simple as that.
This is NOT a bull market.
Probability we're at the start of a bull run? 5%. That's it.
A bear market has two phases: downtrend (panic capitulation in price) and consolidation (slow grind in time). Both are designed to shake you out.
Right now? 95% chance we're still in that process.
If this were actually the bull market starting, then the entire drop from Oct 2024 highs to $57k would just be a mid-cycle correction. That would imply a cycle top I can't even fathom. And the liquidity simply isn't there to support that.
So why are all the KOLs screaming "bull market is here"?
Because they're fake traders. Simple as that.
