The Fed’s decision is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time today, September 16, 2026. The Chair’s press conference usually begins at 2:30 p.m. ET. That is 11:00 a.m. Pacific, 7:00 p.m. UK time, and 8:00 p.m. Central European Time.
Current expectation: Markets are pricing in about an 89% chance of a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase, with roughly an 11% chance of no change. A 50-basis-point increase or a cut is viewed as highly unlikely.
The hike would be notable because it would reportedly be the first increase since 2023, reflecting concern that inflation remains too high.
What matters most for crypto is not only the decision, but also the Fed’s forward guidance—what it signals about future rates.
25-basis-point hike, but dovish guidance: Crypto could initially fall, then recover if traders believe this is a one-time move and future hikes are unlikely.
25-basis-point hike plus hawkish guidance: Usually negative for Bitcoin and altcoins. Higher rates make cash and bonds more attractive, strengthen the dollar, and reduce liquidity available for speculative assets.
No hike: Likely positive for crypto, especially if the Fed suggests rates may remain unchanged or eventually decline.
Surprise 50-basis-point hike: Likely a sharp risk-off reaction, with heavier pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and especially high-beta altcoins.
Unexpected cut: Potentially bullish for crypto, although a cut caused by fear of economic weakness could create an initially volatile or negative reaction.
A simple way to think about it: lower rates and easier financial conditions generally support crypto; higher rates and a stronger dollar generally pressure it. But because markets have already priced in a hike, the initial reaction could be relatively muted. The bigger market move may come from the Fed’s projections, inflation language, and answers during the press conference.
Watch especially for:
Whether this is described as a single adjustment or the start of a hiking cycle.
Any indication of additional hikes in 2026.
The Fed’s inflation and employment outlook.
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar immediately after 2:00 p.m.
Bitcoin’s reaction around 2:00–3:30 p.m. ET, when volatility may be unusually high.
For crypto traders, avoid assuming that “priced-in hike = guaranteed rally.” A common pattern is an initial move in one direction followed by a reversal during the press conference.
