FOMC DAY: Rate decision drops 2PM ET, Warsh presser 2:30PM ET
92.7% odds of 25bps hike → pushing rates to 3.75-4.00%
The irony? Trump put Warsh in expecting dovish cuts. Instead we're getting hawkish hikes because inflation won't die.
Higher rates = tighter liquidity = pain for $BTC and risk assets. Bonds start looking juicy again.
BUT here's the alpha: the hike is fully priced. What matters now is Warsh's forward guidance. If he hints at pause or pivot, we rip. If he stays hawkish on future meetings, we dump.
$BTC either already ate this news for breakfast or we're about to see a wick. Watch 2:30PM closely.
92.7% odds of 25bps hike → pushing rates to 3.75-4.00%
The irony? Trump put Warsh in expecting dovish cuts. Instead we're getting hawkish hikes because inflation won't die.
Higher rates = tighter liquidity = pain for $BTC and risk assets. Bonds start looking juicy again.
BUT here's the alpha: the hike is fully priced. What matters now is Warsh's forward guidance. If he hints at pause or pivot, we rip. If he stays hawkish on future meetings, we dump.
$BTC either already ate this news for breakfast or we're about to see a wick. Watch 2:30PM closely.
