​Middle East and energy: Saudi Arabia has reportedly cancelled some oil cargoes to Europe after drone attacks damaged a key export pipeline. Oil cargo prices were reported above $120 per barrel, raising fresh inflation and supply concerns.

​US–Canada trade tensions: Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of US goods as trade tensions escalate.

​Markets and central banks: The US dollar is near multi-week highs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. Markets are also watching the Bank of Japan, where traders see a significant chance of a rate hike later this week.

​AI regulation: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are discussing an industry-led AI standards and testing body focused on safety.

​Europe security: Dutch rail services were heavily disrupted after suspected coordinated sabotage at multiple track locations.

​Geopolitics: The US is reportedly preparing a major munitions sale to Israel, while tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain a major market risk.

Market takeaway: Energy supply disruptions, central-bank decisions, and Middle East developments are the main factors currently influencing risk sentiment. Crypto and other risk assets may remain sensitive to moves in oil, the dollar, and bond yields.