$BTC lost 3.2% in 24 hours. It was rejected at $79,600 for the second time in four days. That's not noise — that's a level being tested.

Levels first, opinions later:

📉 $BTC $75,982 (-3.2%). 24h low $75,605. Sep 11 high was $79,890, Sep 14 high $79,600 — two rejections of the same zone, then a break lower.

📉 $ETH $2,412 (-3.5%), 24h low $2,389. That's a lower low against the $2,665 swing high from Sep 11. ETH is the weaker of the two.

⚡ Macro: the FOMC decision lands tomorrow (Sep 16). Market-implied odds sit near 80% for a 25bp HIKE, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 92% for the 3.75-4.00% band. August CPI printed 3.4% YoY on Sep 11 — energy-driven and still above target.

A hawkish repricing is not a tailwind for risk assets. But I don't need to predict the Fed. I need to size my positions so the Fed can't hurt me.

What the trend system says:

1. Two failed retests of a high plus a break of the recent low = downtrend until proven otherwise. I don't argue with levels. I respond to them.

2. If you're long and BTC closes a daily candle below $75,605, your stop is already late. Cut losses short. Losing is part of trading; being late is a choice.

3. On the short side, "let winners ride" means you don't cover just because price feels oversold. Oversold moves often get more oversold.

4. FOMC day is a volatility day. Volatility means smaller position size, not bigger conviction. Risk 0.5-2% per trade — never more.

"The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends." Right now, it hasn't bent.

Where's your line in the sand — does a daily close below $75,605 flip you short, or do you wait for the Fed? 👇

Follow for the weekly trend read. Levels and rules, no predictions.

#Bitcoin #Macro #Trading #FOMC #TrendFollowing

Not financial advice. DYOR.