Clarity Act vote TOMORROW — and the missing votes just showed up.
The sticking point that killed this for months? Just got resolved.
Republicans dropped a revised 635-page text. Called it their "last, best, and final" offer. 7-10 Dems already locked in to vote YES.
Vote's at 2:15 PM ET Tuesday. Needs 60 to advance. If it passes, 30 hours of debate open up, then final approval only needs 51.
What unstuck it? The ethics clause — the exact point where negotiations kept breaking:
• New text bans POTUS and federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. Trump himself backs it.
• Stablecoin rules now include a "circuit breaker" — federal intervention if community banks face mass deposit flight to stablecoins.
• Added conflict-of-interest restrictions for companies tied to exchanges, brokers, and digital commodity dealers.
Bernstein ($900B AUM) says these changes might be enough to lock Dem support. And here's the kicker for price action:
"Any positive surprise is NOT priced in."
Kalshi odds for passage within the next year just jumped to 69%.
Does the ethics clause get us to 60 votes, or do Dems drag this out until the last second?
The sticking point that killed this for months? Just got resolved.
Republicans dropped a revised 635-page text. Called it their "last, best, and final" offer. 7-10 Dems already locked in to vote YES.
Vote's at 2:15 PM ET Tuesday. Needs 60 to advance. If it passes, 30 hours of debate open up, then final approval only needs 51.
What unstuck it? The ethics clause — the exact point where negotiations kept breaking:
• New text bans POTUS and federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. Trump himself backs it.
• Stablecoin rules now include a "circuit breaker" — federal intervention if community banks face mass deposit flight to stablecoins.
• Added conflict-of-interest restrictions for companies tied to exchanges, brokers, and digital commodity dealers.
Bernstein ($900B AUM) says these changes might be enough to lock Dem support. And here's the kicker for price action:
"Any positive surprise is NOT priced in."
Kalshi odds for passage within the next year just jumped to 69%.
Does the ethics clause get us to 60 votes, or do Dems drag this out until the last second?
