For the first time since 2006, three major central banks are preparing to tighten monetary policy simultaneously:
ECB: Raised rates on September 10, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%
Fed: Futures markets price a near-90% chance of a rate hike (decision Wednesday)
BOJ: Decision on Friday
The 2006 tightening began on May 10, with losses accumulating quickly. But the S&P 500 still finished that year up 15.79% the real crash only came two years later, driven by subprime mortgage debt.
In August 2024, the BOJ hiked, the yen surged, the TOPIX dropped 12% in a single day, and Bitcoin fell as much as 20%. Japanese stocks fell 8.4% over a month.
Bitcoin is holding above $79,000 after the yen rose 3.7% over three sessions. Prices have already been repriced down 33% over the past year, trading at $77,871 at the time of writing.
US Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52 billion in August, far outpacing the $5.3 billion withdrawn over the previous seven months. That money isn't yen-funded financial pressure won't automatically force it out. Continued daily ETF inflows this week could help cushion the impact from rate decisions.
The "three central banks tightening at once" scenario is a real macro risk but it doesn't mean Bitcoin will collapse immediately. 2006 showed markets can absorb the initial tightening and still grow, before facing the real consequences later.
The key difference this time: ETF inflows are coming from institutional investors, not yen carry trades. That means selling pressure from a surging yen will be less than in August 2024.
But don't get complacent. If the Fed hikes and the BOJ tightens too, global capital will flow toward safe assets. Bitcoin may not crash immediately, but pressure will build.
What do you think can $BTC absorb this macro shock thanks to ETF inflows, or is this the start of a deeper correction?
News is for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making a decision.