Markets pricing 90.3% chance Fed hikes Wednesday → 3.75–4.00%. That's Warsh's first hike as Chair.
Higher rates = tighter liquidity. Crypto runs on liquidity.
$BTC sits near the top of the risk curve. Alts and memes? They'll bleed first if liquidity dries up.
But here's the thing: 90% probability is already priced. The hike won't move markets.
The real alpha is what Warsh signals NEXT. Is this a one-and-done or the start of a tightening cycle?
If he signals more hikes ahead, risk-on assets get wrecked. If he pivots dovish, we rip.
Watch the presser. Not the hike itself.
Higher rates = tighter liquidity. Crypto runs on liquidity.
$BTC sits near the top of the risk curve. Alts and memes? They'll bleed first if liquidity dries up.
But here's the thing: 90% probability is already priced. The hike won't move markets.
The real alpha is what Warsh signals NEXT. Is this a one-and-done or the start of a tightening cycle?
If he signals more hikes ahead, risk-on assets get wrecked. If he pivots dovish, we rip.
Watch the presser. Not the hike itself.
