😮💨 $BTC — breathing after the explosion
Two weeks ago BTC was at $63,200. Last week it peaked at $82,300. This week it opened at $79,200 and closed at $76,300 — a controlled pullback of -3.7%. After a +22% explosion in one week, this kind of consolidation is normal and healthy. The market is digesting one of the most violent moves of the year. As we said in last week's bilan — "spectacular moves need time to confirm." This week was that time. 😮💨
🌡️ CPI — the good news and the hidden warning
The headline numbers looked reassuring. CPI came in at 3.4% YoY — exactly as expected, unchanged from July. Core CPI dropped to 2.4% YoY — the lowest level since February 2026. Inflation excluding food and energy is genuinely approaching the Fed's 2% target. That is real progress and the market noticed — BTC initially dumped then recovered back above $77,000 within the same hour. 👀
But here is what most posts won't tell you. The monthly core CPI came in at 0.3% — above the 0.2% consensus. Every single analyst forecast was between 0.16% and 0.24%. The actual came in at 0.29% — beating the entire forecast range. At an annualised pace that is 3.5% — well above the Fed's target. Shelter, airfares, education and used cars led the acceleration. The annual number looks good. The monthly number does not. 🧠
✅ CPI YoY: 3.4% — in line with forecast
✅ Core CPI YoY: 2.4% — lowest since February, approaching 2% target
⚠️ Core CPI MoM: 0.3% — above 0.2% consensus, beat entire forecast range
⚠️ Annualised monthly pace: 3.5% — not consistent with 2% target
🏠 Shelter, airfares, education: all accelerating this month
🏭 PPI — the pipeline is hot
The day before CPI — PPI dropped and it was not pretty. PPI rose 0.4% MoM — above the 0.0% flat reading last month. Annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% YoY from 4.8% in July. Energy prices rose 4.2% during the month — driven by Brent crude surging back above $111/barrel on new Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The pipeline is hot. What shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI in 2-3 months. The good CPI number we see today may not last. 😬
🏭 PPI MoM: +0.4% — rebound after flat July
🏭 PPI YoY: 5.4% — up from 4.8%, accelerating
⛽ Energy PPI: +4.2% MoM — oil back above $111
⚠️ Pipeline inflation: 2-3 month delay before hitting consumers
🚨 Brent: $111/barrel — Houthis hit Saudi infrastructure again
🚨 Rate hike probability September 15-16: 85% on CME FedWatch
🔑 the contradiction — and what it means for fomc
This week gave the Fed two conflicting messages in two days. CPI annual rate looks good — Core 2.4% is the best reading in months. But CPI monthly acceleration is too fast. And PPI is screaming that more inflation is coming. Nationwide now expects a quarter-point hike next week. CME FedWatch puts rate hike probability at 85% entering the September 15-16 FOMC. The quiet period is in effect — no Fed speakers. Warsh decides in silence. 👁️
🔑 week in short
$BTC 📉 $79,200 → $76,300 — controlled consolidation after +22% 😮💨
✅ Core CPI YoY: 2.4% — real progress toward 2% target
⚠️ Core CPI MoM: 0.3% — beat entire forecast range, too hot
🚨 PPI YoY: 5.4% — pipeline hot, more inflation coming
🛢️ Brent: $111 — Houthis attacking Saudi infrastructure again
🚨 Rate hike probability: 85% — September 15-16 FOMC
📅 Next: FOMC September 15-16 — most important Fed decision of 2026
The good news is real — core CPI at 2.4% is the best reading since the war started. The bad news is also real — the monthly acceleration and PPI pipeline mean that improvement may not last. BTC absorbed both messages and closed at $76,300 — still 20% above where it was three weeks ago. FOMC September 15-16 is now 4 days away. With rate hike probability at 85% — the market is not pricing a hold. It is pricing a hike. If Warsh surprises and holds — BTC could explode toward $85K. If he hikes — BTC tests $70K support. The most binary Fed decision of 2026 is days away. 🎯
