On Aug. 19, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury would double long-dated bond buybacks after the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high. While the increase from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation isn’t huge, several market participants read the move as a step toward yield curve control and quantitative easing-like policy.
8 月 19 日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，当 30 年期国债收益率达到 19 年来的最高水平后，财政部将把长期债券的回购规模翻倍。虽然每次回购的资金从 20 亿美元增加到 40 亿美元这一增幅并不大，但一些市场参与者认为这一举措实际上是朝着控制收益率曲线和类似量化宽松政策的方向发展。
Bessent’s statement shifted a narrative-driven crypto market into the age-old framework anchored on the belief that sticky inflation and easy-money government policies are great for Bitcoin (BTC) and hard assets. This perception of balance-sheet manipulation fits into the monetary-debasement trade framework that Bitcoiners love. A quick flip through BloombergTV or X (formerly known to traders as Crypto Twitter) will reveal multiple discussions of the “debasement trade” being in full effect.
贝森特的言论将原本以叙事驱动的市场模式转变为一种基于信念的框架——即通胀持续和宽松的货币政策对比特币和硬资产非常有利。这种对资产负债表操纵的看法符合比特币投资者所喜爱的“货币贬值交易”模式。只需快速浏览一下 BloombergTV 或 X 平台（ traders 以前称之为“加密货币 Twitter”），就能发现关于“货币贬值交易”的诸多讨论正在广泛流传。
Markets began shifting weeks before talk of an Operation Twist-style intervention. On July 31, the US and Japan jointly intervened in currency markets to support the Japanese yen, which had hit a 40-year low.
在谈论类似“操作特斯”式的干预措施之前，市场已经开始发生变化了。7 月 31 日，美国和日本联合对货币市场进行了干预，以支持跌至 40 年低点的日元。
As a result, DXY dropped and gold rallied. Meanwhile, Secretary Bessent’s follow-up decision to double long-bond buybacks kicked off a hard-asset rally in Bitcoin, gold and several crypto-adjacent stocks. Strategy’s Stretch (STRC) traded within dollars of its $100 peg, while COIN, CRCL, and other crypto-related stocks saw double-digit gains.
因此，DXY 指数下跌，而黄金价格则上涨。与此同时，贝森特部长随后决定将长期债券回购操作的数量翻倍，这一决定引发了比特币、黄金以及几只与加密货币相关的股票的强劲上涨。Strategy’s Stretch (STRC)股票的交易价格一度接近其 100 美元的支撑价位，而 COIN、CRCL 以及其他与加密货币相关的股票则取得了两位数的涨幅。
Will Operation Twist Again Press Fed Credibility and Independence?
“旋转操作”是否会再次损害联邦政府的信誉和独立性呢？
Federal Reserve credibility remains an issue, and its response function under Chair Kevin Warsh remains unclear to markets. Warsh threw out the convention of issuing forward guidance in his first FOMC presser and prior to his Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech. Markets viewed him as vague about the Fed’s renewed objectives beyond a handful of task forces aimed at reviewing the Fed’s mandate and modernizing its policies.
联邦储备系统的可信度仍然是一个问题，而首席经济学家凯文·沃什的应对方式也令市场感到困惑。在首次的 FOMC 新闻发布会上，沃什放弃了发布前瞻性指导方针的传统做法；在 8 月 28 日杰克逊霍尔演讲中，他的言论同样含糊其辞，没有明确说明美联储新的目标是什么，只是提到了几个专门负责审查美联储职责范围以及现代化政策制定的小组。市场认为，他对美联储新目标的阐述不够清晰。
The Treasury’s effort to push long-bond yields lower may intensify concerns about Fed independence, particularly if markets begin to expect coordinated action from the central bank. This has been a concern among analysts ever since President Trump began heavily criticizing former chair Jerome Powell and looking for candidates who would "immediately lower interest rates.”
财政部试图降低长期债券收益率的举措可能会加剧人们对美联储独立性的担忧，尤其是当市场开始预期央行会采取协调一致的行动时。自从特朗普总统开始强烈批评前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，并寻找能够“立即降低利率”的候选人以来，这一担忧一直存在。
The Fed's clearest objectives remain its 2% inflation target and maximum employment. In the Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech, Warsh said,
美联储最明确的目标仍然是实现 2%的通胀目标以及实现最大就业水平。在 8 月 28 日杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的演讲中，沃什表示：
“It's the Fed's job to make sure that inflation expectations do not get unanchored. There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs. Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job, our mandate, and our charge to keep.”
“美联储的职责就是确保通胀预期不会变得不稳定。有一个信号是绝对不容忽视的：持续 65 个月的高通胀责任完全属于中央银行。这才是它的职责所在。我的原则是：我们必须确信，通胀水平正在朝着我们设定的目标平稳且稳定地增长。否则，我们就需要采取行动。这就是我们的任务，我们的使命，也是我们的责任。”
Fed hike-and-hold odds in September. Source: Edward Lawrence / X
9 月份美联储的加息政策概率。来源：Edward Lawrence / X
The Aug. 26 PCE print showed inflation remained sticky, with headline PCE at 3.7%, slightly above the expected 3.6%, and core PCE at 3.3%, in line with expectations. This leaves wiggle room for the Fed to hold rates and see how goods pricing versus demand plays out over the coming months.
8 月 26 日发布的 PCE 报告显示，通胀情况仍然较为顽固。整体 PCE 通胀率为 3.7%，略高于预期的 3.6%；核心 PCE 通胀率为 3.3%，符合预期。这给美联储留下了一定的调整利率的空间，让他们观察未来几个月商品价格与需求之间的关系如何发展。
Bitcoin ETF Volumes, Liquidations Fuel Surge Above $81K
比特币 ETF 的成交量推动价格突破 8.1 万美元大关
More than $4.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across futures markets as Bitcoin broke through $70,000 last week, while nearly $2 billion in net Bitcoin ETF inflows over five sessions also shifted investor sentiment.
随着比特币价格上周突破 7 万美元大关，期货市场上有超过 45 亿美元的高杠杆头寸被清算。同时，在五个交易日内，近 20 亿美元的比特币 ETF 资金流入也改变了投资者的情绪。
Bitcoin liquidations fueled rally to $81,000. Source: Glassnode / X
比特币的抛售行为推动了价格升至 81,000 美元。来源：Glassnode / X
The price action regime has clearly shifted from sell the rips to buy the dips. Investors are now buying to sell later, instead of selling to buy back lower, and after a long period of low volatility and high apathy in investor sentiment, the rally through the $70,000 resistance appears to have put the final nail in the bear market coffin.
价格走势显然已经从“卖出上涨行情”转变为“买入下跌行情”。现在，投资者们开始买入股票，以便之后能够卖出获利；而在经历了长时间的低波动性以及投资者情绪低迷之后，股价突破 7 万美元的阻力位，似乎为熊市划上了句号。
Bitcoin capital flows, US Treasury yield-curve-control ends bear market. Source: Ray Salmond / X
比特币资本流动，美国财政部对收益率曲线的调控导致熊市出现。来源：Ray Salmond / X
Bloomberg data showed gold and BTC ETFs combined for more than $7 billion in inflows over the past week, and the ETFs are back in the top10 most traded. Data also show BlackRock’s IBIT year-to-date flows turning positive ($1.31 billion) this week, and the ETF notched the largest buy-side skew in 2 years. For the first time in weeks, retail and institutional investor capital flows are in tandem, with ETF inflows accelerating into a rally that was fueled in part by short liquidations.
根据布隆伯格的数据，过去一周，黄金和比特币 ETF 共带来了超过 70 亿美元的资金流入。这些 ETF 再次跻身最活跃的交易品种之列。此外，黑岩投资公司的 IBIT 年度资金流向本周转为正值，金额为 13.1 亿美元。与此同时，这些 ETF 的买入力量是过去两年中最大的。几周来，首次出现零售投资者和机构投资者之间的资金流动同步现象，ETF 的流入量甚至在短期内有所加速，这部分是由于短期抛售导致的。
IBIT year-to-date flows turn positive. Source: Eric Balchunas / X
截至本年度的现金流已转为正数。来源：Eric Balchunas / X
Bernstein is now calling for a $150,000 BTC price by mid-2027, while VanEck says that its 12 Signal model may signal that the bear market is finally over.
伯恩斯坦目前预计，到 2027 年中期，比特币的价格将达到 15 万美元一盎司。而 VanEck 则认为，其 12 信号模型可能表明，熊市终于结束了。
Will Bitcoin Take a Breather?
比特币会暂停交易吗？
In terms of the rally’s potential duration, profit-taking in the $80,000 to $100,000 range seems reasonable given the magnitude of the rally (40% up from the $58,000 “bottom”). As of Aug. 27, 69% of the BTC supply is in profit, up from 45% in July.
就这次涨势的持续时间而言，考虑到涨势的幅度（从 58,000 美元跌至 80,000 至 100,000 美元），在 8 月 27 日时，69%的比特币供应已经实现盈利，而 7 月份这一比例仅为 45%。
CryptoQuant’s age-band cost basis map shows a dense accumulation block at $64,000, the fourth-largest investor cost basis band representing about 9.8% of BTC’s supply.
CryptoQuant 的持仓年龄区间数据显示，有一个密集的持仓区块位于 64,000 美元水平。这个区间的投资者持仓比例位居第四，约占总 BTC 供应量的 9.8%。
At the same time, 32.4% (6.5 million BTC) of Bitcoin’s supply remains underwater with concentration bands around $87,000, $94,000 and $105,000. This overhead shelf represents potential sell pressure, as some investors may cut exposure as price pushes into the low $80,000s and others may exit at breakeven if the rally extends into the overhead UTXO realized price distribution (URPD).
同时，有 32.4%的比特币供应量（约 650 万比特币）仍处于价格低于面值的状态，其价格区间分别约为 87,000 美元、94,000 美元和 105,000 美元。这一价格区间可能会带来卖压，因为一些投资者可能会在价格降至 80,000 美元左右时减少持仓，而另一些投资者则可能在价格持续上涨时以成本价格卖出。
Bitcoin cost basis vs supply. Source: Glassnode / X
比特币的成本基础与供应量。来源：Glassnode / X
Technical indicators are likely to look overbought in the $80,000 to $100,000 range, so a consolidation phase after a 30% sub-two-week move seems reasonable. That said, the market sentiment and price action reset suggests that price is now reflexive to the upside. Flows from the spot, ETF, institutional, and futures markets show investors shifting to a buy-to-sell mentality, rather than the last eight months of selling to buy back lower.
在技术指标方面，当价格处于 8 万至 10 万美元区间时，似乎已经超出了买入的时机。因此，在经历过去两周内超过 30%的上涨之后，出现一段盘整阶段是合理的。不过，市场情绪和价格走势的重新调整表明，目前价格对上涨趋势反应较为敏感。来自现货市场、ETF 市场、机构投资者以及期货市场的资金流动表明，投资者现在更倾向于采取买入再卖的策略，而不是像过去八个月那样从卖出转为买入。
What’s on the Radar? 目前有什么计划吗？
Is Bitcoin overbought? Is a mean reversion and consolidation to $64,000 to $70,000 the next step?
比特币是否已经超买了呢？接下来是价格回归到 64,000 美元到 70,000 美元区间吗？Over the coming week, how will markets digest the contents of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech?
在接下来的一周里，市场将如何消化美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上的演讲内容呢？What direction do Bitcoin aggregate spot and futures flows take, contrasted against spot ETF net flows? How do DXY, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury react amid expanded long-bond buybacks and talk of an Operation Twist-style policy?
比特币的现货交易流量与期货交易流量将朝着什么方向发展？与现货 ETF 的净流量相比，它们又会如何变化？在长期债券回购操作以及类似“操作特斯”政策的讨论背景下，10 年和 30 年的国债收益率会如何表现？Goldman Sachs projects global AI investment will exceed $1 trillion in 2026. What's the ROI on the CAPEX and how much higher can equities rally at this stage of market euphoria?
高盛预测，到 2026 年，全球在人工智能领域的投资将超过 1 万亿美元。那么，这种资本投入的回报是多少呢？在如此市场狂热的情况下，股价还能再上涨多少呢？The Treasury’s long-bond buybacks have resurrected the debasement trade (BTC, gold, weak DXY). They have also renewed the Fed independence and credibility discussion. If the buybacks fail to contain 10Y and 30Y yields, pressure for more aggressive intervention could grow. Treasury officials have floated tapping the nearly $1 trillion Treasury General Account (TGA) to expand bond buybacks. What does this mean for inflation and the Fed's 2% inflation target?
财政部的长期债券回购行为重新激活了贬值交易（比特币、黄金、弱势的 DXY）。此外，他们还重新讨论了美联储的独立性与可信度问题。如果回购行为无法控制 10 年和 30 年的收益率，那么对更激进干预措施的压力可能会加剧。财政官员曾提议动用近 1 万亿美元的财政总账户来扩大债券回购规模。这对通货膨胀以及美联储 2%的通胀目标意味着什么？