🚨 THIS WEEK COULD BE A BIG ONE FOR THE FED AND THE MARKETS.
The next few days are packed with economic data, and most of the attention will be on the US labor market.
Monday: US markets reopen, with investors also watching developments around the US oil deal with Venezuela.
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings arrive. These numbers could quickly change expectations around the Fed’s next move.
Wednesday: ADP employment data drops, along with the Treasury’s $12.5B debt buyback.
Thursday: ISM Services PMI and Japan’s foreign bond investment data come into focus.
Friday is the main event: US Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.
That jobs report could be the biggest market catalyst of the week. July already showed a surprising 23,000 job decline, so investors are watching closely for signs of further weakness.
Here’s the simple way to look at it:
Weak jobs data → less pressure for the Fed to hike → rate hike expectations fall → markets could breathe again.
Strong jobs data → the Fed gets more room to stay hawkish → September hike expectations rise → risk assets could face serious pressure.
Right now, markets are already pricing a meaningful chance of a September hike, so Friday’s number could decide which side gains control.
One week.
Five major data points.
And potentially a very different market by Friday.
Buckle up. Volatility could be coming.
The next few days are packed with economic data, and most of the attention will be on the US labor market.
Monday: US markets reopen, with investors also watching developments around the US oil deal with Venezuela.
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings arrive. These numbers could quickly change expectations around the Fed’s next move.
Wednesday: ADP employment data drops, along with the Treasury’s $12.5B debt buyback.
Thursday: ISM Services PMI and Japan’s foreign bond investment data come into focus.
Friday is the main event: US Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.
That jobs report could be the biggest market catalyst of the week. July already showed a surprising 23,000 job decline, so investors are watching closely for signs of further weakness.
Here’s the simple way to look at it:
Weak jobs data → less pressure for the Fed to hike → rate hike expectations fall → markets could breathe again.
Strong jobs data → the Fed gets more room to stay hawkish → September hike expectations rise → risk assets could face serious pressure.
Right now, markets are already pricing a meaningful chance of a September hike, so Friday’s number could decide which side gains control.
One week.
Five major data points.
And potentially a very different market by Friday.
Buckle up. Volatility could be coming.
