Three places where bitcoin gets bought, and on Friday all three were selling: the US ETFs (-$202M), Coinbase buyers (Coinbase traded 0.9bp below Binance - Americans were not paying up) and Binance spot (-1,156 BTC sold at market). Sounds like the rarest day of the rally. It is the most common one: 150 of the 671 trading days since the ETFs launched looked exactly like this.

We checked what happened next, every time. Five days after a day like Friday, bitcoin was higher 50% of the time. After any random day: 53%. After a day when all three were buying: 54%. Same coin whichever way the lights point - split the data in half and the halves even disagree, 57% then 44%.

One light does matter a little. On days Coinbase traded above Binance - Americans paying up - bitcoin was higher five days later 58% of the time (313 days). When it did not, 50% (358 days). A coin with a small thumb on it, not a signal to bet the house on.

Lesson: one red light is not a forecast, and three red lights are not three forecasts - they are the same buyer seen three ways. Watch which light, not how many.

We check it Thursday, Sep-3: bitcoin above tonight's close means the coin landed heads. Our call is no call. We post this scoreboard every day.

$BTC