Look, $BTC probably isn't going as low as the crowd expects. Bear markets have gotten shallower each cycle — obvious, but it matters.
You'll never nail the exact bottom. That's why I kept saying buy the 60s and was loading heavily myself.
The 50K target everyone's still waiting for? That needs a 40% drop from here.
Now factor in seasonality:
2017 cycle topped December, bottomed December.
Next cycle topped November, bottomed November.
This one topped October, so the assumption is we bottom in October.
But for that to work, $BTC would need to erase this entire 40% rally in the next 35-40 days, break prior lows, and print a fresh cycle low in October.
That logic is starting to break down.
Especially after we just flushed massive liquidations. That's not the price action you see before a traditional bear rollover.
So ask yourself: does it really seem realistic that $BTC reverses this whole move, drops 40%, and prints a cycle low in 35-40 days?
I'm increasingly skeptical.
The character of this move suggests the bottom may already be in.
We spent months chopping around 62K, repeatedly failing to break lower despite everyone expecting it. At some point, you have to consider that those waiting for the perfect sweep got front-run.
Maybe this cycle doesn't follow the textbook seasonal bottom. Maybe the cycle shifted — which was my theory six months ago.
Believe what you want. This is how I'm reading the chart based on price action, regardless of my position.
The plan: if the setup fits the long-term wealth build, you size in. If the market keeps proving it won't give the crowd their perfect entry, you adjust. No edge in waiting for a textbook move that may never come. Trade the chart now to fund freedom later.
You'll never nail the exact bottom. That's why I kept saying buy the 60s and was loading heavily myself.
The 50K target everyone's still waiting for? That needs a 40% drop from here.
Now factor in seasonality:
2017 cycle topped December, bottomed December.
Next cycle topped November, bottomed November.
This one topped October, so the assumption is we bottom in October.
But for that to work, $BTC would need to erase this entire 40% rally in the next 35-40 days, break prior lows, and print a fresh cycle low in October.
That logic is starting to break down.
Especially after we just flushed massive liquidations. That's not the price action you see before a traditional bear rollover.
So ask yourself: does it really seem realistic that $BTC reverses this whole move, drops 40%, and prints a cycle low in 35-40 days?
I'm increasingly skeptical.
The character of this move suggests the bottom may already be in.
We spent months chopping around 62K, repeatedly failing to break lower despite everyone expecting it. At some point, you have to consider that those waiting for the perfect sweep got front-run.
Maybe this cycle doesn't follow the textbook seasonal bottom. Maybe the cycle shifted — which was my theory six months ago.
Believe what you want. This is how I'm reading the chart based on price action, regardless of my position.
The plan: if the setup fits the long-term wealth build, you size in. If the market keeps proving it won't give the crowd their perfect entry, you adjust. No edge in waiting for a textbook move that may never come. Trade the chart now to fund freedom later.
